Rice exports generated $327 billion in revenue in the first seven months; the market is still awaiting a move from India.

The domestic rice market on August 3, 2024, recorded sluggish trading in various localities. Specifically, in Can Tho, the demand for autumn-winter rice was quite high, and transactions remained stable. In Long An, demand for rice was also high, and the rice quality was good. In An Giang , trading of new rice slowed down due to limited stock and high prices.

Prices for IR 50 404 rice fluctuate around 6,900 - 7,000 VND/kg; Dai Thom 8 rice is priced at 7,400 - 7,600 VND/kg; OM 5451 rice is priced at 7,000 - 7,200 VND/kg; OM 18 rice is priced at 7,400 - 7,600 VND/kg; OM 380 rice ranges from 6,800 - 7,000 VND/kg; Nhat rice is at 7,800 - 8,000 VND/kg; Nang Hoa 9 rice is priced at 6,900 - 7,000 VND/kg, and Nang Nhen (dried) rice is at 20,000 VND/kg.

Regarding rice, the price of IR 504 summer-autumn raw rice is at 11,100 - 11,250 VND/kg; finished IR 504 rice has decreased to 13,300 - 13,400 VND/kg.

Vietnam's export rice prices remained unchanged compared to yesterday. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), standard 5% broken rice held steady at US$559/ton; 25% broken rice remained at US$535/ton.

Compared to a year ago – a time when the rice market was booming due to the impact of India's rice export ban – current rice prices are at a similar level. The rice market has almost established a new price benchmark.

However, export rice prices have seen a slight decrease compared to a year ago. Specifically, on August 3, 2023, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam was 593 USD/ton; and 25% broken rice was 573 USD/ton.

The market remains very cautious, awaiting policy changes from India.

In its July 2024 rice industry outlook report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for global rice trade in 2024 by 500,000 tons to 55.3 million tons, and also projected a high figure of 54.3 million tons for 2025.

Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC)'s July 2024 grain market report forecasts global rice trade for the 2024/2025 season at 53 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the ICG's previous forecast.

Global rice trade is projected to continue increasing. This will impact the Vietnamese rice market. However, rice exporting businesses are still closely monitoring India's policy regarding the rice export ban. All buying and selling decisions made by businesses at this time are being made with great caution.

According to rice exporters, although market demand exists, new contracts are currently being signed cautiously. Furthermore, businesses are also facing the situation where some partners are inquiring about purchases with the intention of… “testing the waters.”

India currently exports over 40% of the world's total rice. If India lifts or eases its rice export ban, it will "drag" down the price of rice in major exporting countries around the world, including Vietnam.

Buyers are waiting, and sellers are hesitating, making the export rice market seem quite quiet at the moment. Accordingly, Vietnamese rice with 5% broken grains (FOB price) is currently offered at only about 559 - 563 USD/ton; Thai rice at 566 - 570 USD/ton; and Pakistani and Myanmar rice at 574 - 578 and 565 - 569 USD/ton respectively, the lowest prices since the end of 2023.

While the export market is "on hold," awaiting a move from India, export businesses are also facing difficulties in procuring rice in the domestic market as rice prices fall, warehouses limit milling and supply to the market, and rain delays the summer-autumn rice harvest.

Signing export contracts before purchasing rice in the domestic market is considered quite risky. Industry experts recommend that businesses focus on purchasing summer-autumn rice to build up inventory before signing contracts. Clearly, any decision a business makes at this time, given the current market conditions, is like "gambling."

In the current context, the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) also recommends that rice exporters closely monitor the global and domestic rice markets, and make careful and thorough calculations when quoting prices for export shipments to ensure business efficiency and maintain the reputation of Vietnamese rice.

However, experts also believe that with Vietnam's biggest rice harvest of the year over, the market trend from now until the end of the year suggests that Vietnamese rice prices are unlikely to fall much further, even if India returns to its normal level. This is because demand in many markets is still increasing.

In the Philippines, rice imports are projected to reach 4.5 million tons in 2024, higher than previous forecasts. Vietnam currently accounts for 85% of the imported rice market there. Indonesia forecasts its rice import demand to increase to 5.18 million tons in 2024, creating significant opportunities for Vietnamese rice exporters.

The summer-autumn crop, with an estimated yield of 6.2 tons/ha, will continue to support rice exports. Vietnamese rice export businesses are also actively expanding into new markets such as Africa and the Middle East to take advantage of opportunities from increasing demand. It is projected that nationwide rice production in 2024 will reach 43 million tons, ensuring domestic consumption and exports of approximately 8 million tons, generating over 5 billion USD as targeted.