The market is unlikely to fall much further; positive signals are emerging; the risk of strong competition for Vietnamese products remains.

Specifically, the price of pepper today in Gia Lai is 146,000 VND/kg.

Today's pepper prices in the provinces of Dong Nai (147,000 VND/kg); Dak Lak (147,000 VND/kg); Dak Nong (147,000 VND/kg); Ba Ria - Vung Tau (147,000 VND/kg) and Binh Phuoc (147,000 VND/kg).

Thus, after a slight increase, domestic pepper prices remained stable today in key producing regions. The highest price was 147,000 VND/kg.

This year's pepper price pattern is different from previous years. Specifically, the average domestic pepper price in July 2024 reached VND 150,000/kg, an increase of 82.9% compared to January and a 120.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. On average, the price of black pepper in the first seven months of 2024 increased by 66.5% compared to 2023.

The main reason for the sharp increase in pepper prices is the decrease in harvest yields in both Vietnam and Brazil - the world's two leading pepper-producing countries.

Experts predict that Vietnam's pepper production could fall to its lowest level in the past five years, estimated at only around 170,000 tons. This means that the supply for export will not be abundant until the end of the year, especially as businesses are facing global supply shortages due to reduced production in many other pepper-producing countries such as Brazil and Indonesia.

In the long term, VPSA assesses that in the next 3-5 years, pepper production will not be able to meet world consumption needs, which is also a factor driving up pepper prices in the near future.

Regarding this week's market outlook, experts say the rebound at the end of last week was a positive sign. Over the past two weeks, domestic pepper prices have fallen by as much as 10,000 VND/kg. Experts believe prices have hit rock bottom and are unlikely to fall much further. This week, pepper prices are expected to recover, but without further catalysts, reaching the 150,000 VND/kg mark will be difficult to achieve.

Amid declining production, in the first six months of the year, Vietnam imported 18,002 tons of various types of pepper, including 16,357 tons of black pepper and 1,645 tons of white pepper. Total import value reached US$69.6 million, an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period last year. The three main pepper suppliers to Vietnam were: Brazil: 7,241 tons, down 22.3%; Cambodia: 6,212 tons, up 34.5%; and Indonesia: 2,991 tons, up 67.3%.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, Brazil currently has 3 sterilized pepper processing plants, with 2 more under construction and expected to be completed in 2025. In the future, Brazilian pepper will be more competitive with Vietnamese pepper, thus reducing import supply. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses need to proactively secure their own raw material sources.