The sports analytics platform Opta Analyst has released its predictions for the 2026 World Cup, based on data from the Opta supercomputer. According to the predictions, Spain is the strongest contender for the title in the first tournament to feature 48 teams.
One-third of the participating countries, or 16 teams, represent Europe. Among them, Germany (4-time champion), France (2-time champion), along with England and Spain (each with 1-time champion) all have the potential to win the title again.
Notably, Opta noted that Italy – the four-time champion – was the only one of the eight former champions to fail to qualify.
Within this group, Opta believes that a victory for the reigning European champion, Spain, would be the least surprising outcome. The supercomputer reached this conclusion after simulating the tournament 25,000 times.
Specifically, Opta predicts that the team most likely to win is Spain, with a 16.1% chance of lifting the trophy in 25,000 simulations.
Following closely behind are France (13%), England (11.2%), and Argentina (10.4%). All three teams won in more than 10% of the simulated scenarios.
In 35.9% of the scenarios, the championship will go to a country that has never won the title (this gives hope to teams like Portugal, ranked 5th with a 7% chance). Besides these teams, only Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%) have a chance of winning exceeding 5%.
The supercomputer predicts that Spain is the only team with a greater than 50% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, with a 52.1% success rate in simulations; a 39% chance of reaching the semi-finals and, in 25.6% of scenarios, progressing to the final.
Spain is given a 75.3% chance of finishing top of their group (ahead of Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde). Even if they don't finish top, they still have a 98.5% chance of reaching the round of 32 and, from there, progressing to the round of 16 in 72.7% of simulations.
The former champion remains the strongest contender.
According to the supercomputer, a former champion is the most likely candidate to win the title. Adding Uruguay's 1.7% (ranked 13th), the seven former world champions participating in the tournament have a combined 64.1% chance of winning the trophy, compared to 35.9% shared among the remaining 41 teams.
Notably, Opta Analyst estimates that the 28 teams have less than a 1% chance of becoming world champions.
Within this group, Türkiye has the highest chance at 0.9%, while at the bottom are five teams with a true win rate of 0%: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti, and Curaçao.
Co-host nation Canada surprisingly ranks 24th in this group, with the same chance of winning as Austria (0.5%) and higher than Sweden (0.4%) or the Czech Republic (0.3%).
The other two co-hosting countries had more favorable results. Although the US (1.2%) and Mexico (1%) weren't really in contention for the championship, they still ranked 18th and 20th, comfortably within the top 20.
Among the teams that are not top contenders but still have the potential to win, the supercomputer estimates that the Netherlands (ranked 8th) have a 3.6% chance of winning, Norway (9th) 3.5%, Belgium (10th) 2.4%, Colombia (11th) 2.1%, the 2022 World Cup semi-finalist Morocco (12th) 1.9%, and the 2018 runner-up and 2022 bronze medalist Croatia (15th) have a 1.6% chance of being crowned champions.
(According to Euronews)
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/sieu-may-tinh-chi-ra-ung-cu-vien-vo-dich-world-cup-2026-2526287.html
