Lebanon prepares for 'worst case scenario'

Fears of all-out war in the region have grown in the past week, with Hezbollah and Iran vowing to retaliate against Israel over the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in a southern suburb of Beirut. A full-scale war could displace one million Lebanese and require more than $300 million in funding over three months, the Lebanese government said. The conflict between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel, which began in October 2023 alongside the war in the Gaza Strip, has displaced around 100,000 Lebanese. According to the Lebanese government's emergency contingency plan, even a controlled conflict, considered the "most likely scenario", could displace 250,000 people and require $146 million in funding for three months to keep vital sectors running. In the "worst case scenario", one million people could be displaced and the country would need $307 million for three months. Lebanon's Economy Minister Amin Salam said the country would need international help if the fighting escalated. Lebanon, which has been in economic crisis since 2019, has struggled to provide basic services to those displaced by the border conflict. The recent escalation has worsened Lebanon's already dire economic situation, particularly its tourism and agriculture sectors, Salam added. Lebanon’s cabinet convened an emergency meeting on August 7 to assess the country’s preparedness for a full-scale escalation of the war, focusing on food security, energy, health and education. The government’s contingency plan shows that most key sectors, including shelter, fuel, food and water, lack funding for emergency preparedness. Lebanon also lacks the warehouse capacity to stockpile supplies and shelters for civilians in the event of an escalation of hostilities and mass displacement. Lebanon’s diesel supplies are only enough for four to six weeks in the event of a siege on a scale similar to the 2006 war, according to Salam. Lebanon is heavily dependent on diesel generators.