Iran makes the Middle East and the world hold their breath waiting for a reaction

For days, the Middle East and the world have been holding their breath, waiting to see how Iran and its proxies will retaliate for the recent attacks on Tehran and Beirut.

The attack on Tehran, which Iran blamed on Israel, killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, while the attack on Beirut (for which the Jewish state claimed responsibility) killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned G7 diplomats on August 4 that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel could "occur in the next 24-48 hours (ie August 5-6).

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (right) meets with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Tehran, August 5, 2024. Photo: Arab News

August 5 was uneventful but nothing major happened. Early on August 5, Hezbollah launched a drone attack on northern Israel, injuring two Israeli soldiers.

But according to Gregory Brew, a senior analyst and Iran expert at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, this is part of the “normal retaliation that we have seen” between pro-Iranian militants and the Jewish state since the October 7 milestone last year when the conflict in the Gaza Strip flared up again.

A larger retaliatory strike on Israel is still expected. On August 5, Iran warned airlines of possible GPS disruption, but it was unclear whether this was related to any attack plans.

Also on the same day, General Hossein Salami, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that Israel "will see the consequences of its mistakes. They will see when, how and where they will receive a response."

Meanwhile, also on August 5, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu was in Tehran. This came just days after Moscow called on all sides to avoid actions that could lead to a wider war.

The question is what is Iran waiting for? According to Mr. Brew, Tehran feels compelled to retaliate but also wants to respond in a way that does not trigger a wider war in the region.

Iran needs time to prepare “for what is sure to be a complex operation,” Mr Brew said, adding that “there are likely debates within Tehran about exactly how to respond to Israel”.

Here too, the doctrine of strategic patience is likely to come into play, Mr Brew said, “with Iranian leaders taking their time to formulate a response, keeping the region in suspense and ramping up the psychological warfare ahead of the attack”.

On August 5, the commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi to discuss defense cooperation between the two sides, according to an Israeli statement about the meeting. The Pentagon did not release the U.S. statement.

Minh Duc (According to GZero Media, CBS News)