Coffee price today 8/3/2024

World coffee prices on both London and New York exchanges increased again after a series of consecutive days of decline.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week were trading in the range of 122,600 - 123,000 VND/kg, down about 1,000 VND/kg compared to a week ago.

The dollar fell to a four-month low, helping arabica recover, while robusta also rose slightly in London. The dollar fell to a four-month low in the previous session after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September as the economy worsens.

Coffee prices have been on a downward trend for the past three weeks, hitting a four-week low on Thursday. Harvest pressure from Brazil combined with a weakening Real have combined to push coffee prices higher. The US dollar is currently trading around 5.658 Brazilian Real, a relatively low level for the Real.

Experts say that technically, both coffee prices are almost at the end of the downtrend, especially for Robusta. Although there is no sign of a rebound, technical forecasts suggest that Robusta prices will stop falling from the end of this week to next week. It would be more risky if traders on the floor continue to be on the selling side next week.

As of the end of this week, certified graded Arabica coffee holdings on the New York market fell by 6,184 bags from the previous day to 814,924 bags. Robusta coffee holdings on the London Coffee Exchange increased by 11,500 bags in the week to July 29, reaching a total of 1,075,000 bags, of which Brazilian Conilon accounted for more than 90%.

Domestic coffee prices on August 2 decreased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Shutterstock)

According to the World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on August 2, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange slightly increased again, the delivery period in September 2024 increased by 2 USD, trading at 4,227 USD/ton. The delivery period in November 2024 increased by 5 USD, trading at 4,088 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the September 2024 delivery term up 3.25 cents, trading at 230.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term increased 3.15 cents, trading at 229.55 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, by the end of July, Vietnam's coffee export volume in the 2023-2024 crop year reached about 1.26 million tons.

Meanwhile, the total output of this crop year is estimated at only 1.47 million tons, so the amount of inventory to be exported in the coming months is about 200,000 tons.

Vietnam's export turnover in the third quarter of 2024 is forecast to decrease sharply due to exhausted supply. In the fourth quarter of 2024, coffee export turnover may increase again as Vietnam begins the new crop harvest from October.

According to some businesses, the current coffee inventory is only about 200,000 tons while Vietnam still has more than 3 months to harvest. To meet export orders and serve domestic demand, businesses may have to increase imports from neighboring countries such as Indonesia to meet signed orders. This was predicted at the end of April 2024 at the meeting of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa). The value of coffee imports in the past 7 months has reached 110 million USD.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices have cooled down temporarily due to Brazil’s increasing harvest as the season nears its end. In addition, the country’s currency weakening against the US dollar will also accelerate exports in the coming time.