Vietnam's coffee export turnover is projected to decline sharply in Q3 2024 due to depleted supply. Export turnover may rebound in Q4 2024 as Vietnam begins its new crop harvest in October.
Coffee prices today, August 3, 2024
World coffee prices on both the London and New York exchanges have risen again after a series of consecutive declines.
Domestic coffee prices traded in the range of 122,600 - 123,000 VND/kg at the end of the week, a decrease of about 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous week.
The sharp drop in the US dollar, hitting a four-month low, helped arabica coffee recover, which in turn led to a slight increase in robusta coffee on the London exchange. The USD had fallen to its lowest level in four months in the last trading session, after weaker-than-expected July jobs data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September as the economic situation worsened.
Coffee prices have been trending downwards for the past three weeks, hitting a four-week low yesterday, Thursday. Pressure from the Brazilian coffee harvest, coupled with the weakening Brazilian Real, has driven prices down. One USD is currently trading at around 5.658 Brazilian Real, a relatively low level for the currency.
Experts assess that, technically, the prices of both types of coffee are almost at the end of their downward cycle, especially for robusta coffee. Although there are no signals yet indicating a market rebound, technical forecasts suggest that robusta prices may stop falling from the end of this week until next week. It would be riskier if traders on the exchange continue to side with the sellers next week.
As of the end of this week, certified graded arabica coffee held on the New York market decreased by 6,184 bags from the previous day, now standing at 814,924 bags. Robusta coffee inventories held on the London Exchange increased by 11,500 bags in the week ending July 29, reaching a total of 1,075,000 bags, with Brazilian Conilon accounting for over 90%.
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| Domestic coffee prices on August 2nd decreased by 400-500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. (Source: Shutterstock) |
According to World & Vietnam 's closing report on August 2nd, robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange adjusted slightly upwards again. The September 2024 delivery contract increased by $2, trading at $4,227/ton. The November 2024 delivery contract increased by $5, trading at $4,088/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange rose, with the September 2024 contract increasing by 3.25 cents to trade at 230.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 contract rose by 3.15 cents to trade at 229.55 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on August 2nd decreased by 400-500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg
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According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, as of the end of July, Vietnam's coffee exports for the 2023-2024 crop year reached approximately 1.26 million tons.
Meanwhile, the total output for this crop year is estimated at only 1.47 million tons, so the inventory ready for export in the coming months is approximately 200,000 tons.
Vietnam's coffee export turnover is projected to decline sharply in the third quarter of 2024 due to depleted supply. However, export turnover may rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024 as Vietnam begins its new crop harvest in October.
According to some businesses, current coffee inventories are only around 200,000 tons, while Vietnam's harvest season is still more than three months away. To fulfill export orders and domestic demand, businesses may have to increase imports from neighboring countries such as Indonesia to meet signed contracts. This was predicted at the end of April 2024 during a meeting of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa). The value of coffee imports in the past seven months has reached US$110 million.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices have temporarily cooled down due to increasing harvest yields in Brazil as the season nears its end. In addition, the weakening of the Brazilian currency against the US dollar is expected to accelerate exports in the near future.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-382024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-sap-ngung-roi-than-trong-khi-dung-o-phe-ban-281171.html
