The stock market lacks factors to support an upward trend.

According to trading statistics on the HOSE exchange last week, the VN-Index had 3 rising sessions and 2 falling sessions. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 12.96 points (-1.05%) to 1,223.64 points. Liquidity on the HOSE exchange this week increased slightly by 6% compared to the previous week, with a total trading value of 85,351 billion VND.

Foreign investors had a net selling week of up to 4,000 billion VND, with a focus on selling blue-chip stocks, especially airline stock VJC, which accounted for more than a quarter of the total net selling value of the entire market.

The sharp corrections in late July and early August 2024, especially amidst the global stock market sell-off, caused the VN-Index to break the uptrend established since October 2023. From the end of July, despite positive macroeconomic conditions in Vietnam, unfavorable global news significantly impacted the global and Vietnamese stock markets, and is expected to continue to have a negative impact in the coming period. Maintaining the 1,150-1,160 point range is considered a challenge for the VN-Index in sustaining its medium-to-long-term uptrend.

Analysts at ACBS Securities Company believe that, excluding the possibility of a US economic "recession" due to the recent increase in warning signs of recession, the most likely scenario for the VN-Index in the last six months of the year is to continue fluctuating within the range of 1,150 - 1,300, given Vietnam's stable macroeconomic environment, positive growth, and relatively attractive overall valuations.

With profit prospects unlikely to break through in the next 1-2 quarters, a widespread correction in mid- and small-cap stocks is appropriate. Opportunities in the second half of the year will lean towards the VN30 group (in which banking stocks account for a large proportion), especially in the context of the Fed lowering interest rates and the potential return of foreign investment to the market.

Experts at An Binh Securities Company have presented two scenarios for the VN-Index in August. Scenario 1 assumes that riots and armed conflicts are resolved and do not escalate further; if the VN-Index maintains the 1,166 mark, it will form a sideways consolidation structure.

Scenario 2, the opposite case, favors a downward price correction in August. If the weekly closing price fails to hold above 1,166, the overall market will continue to correct downwards to support levels 3 of previous months' analysis reports, in the 1,140 - 1,080 range. These corrections could occur quite rapidly and strongly. In that case, the market's 12-month trailing P/E ratio is expected to fall to a fairly attractive level of 12.6x - 11.9x.

With such forecasts, experts believe that medium-term risk management should be prioritized during August. Trading stocks during technical rallies requires careful consideration at the support levels of the VN-Index and specific stocks, when there are concrete signals confirming the completion of the price pattern. During rallies within medium-term corrections, investors should lower profit expectations and adhere to stop-loss orders.