Coffee price today 11/8/2024

World coffee prices fell sharply at the end of the week, but still increased sharply throughout the week.

Domestic coffee prices this week went against the global trend, falling sharply despite the strong increase in London. This week, domestic coffee lost an average of VND4,000/kg, currently trading in the range of VND118,600 - 119,300/kg.

To sum up the whole week, the price of robusta coffee futures for September delivery increased by 99 USD/ton. The price of arabica coffee futures for September delivery increased by 4 cents/lb. While last week, the price of robusta coffee decreased by 75 USD/ton, the price of arabica coffee increased by 0.25 cents/lb. Although coffee prices decreased sharply in the last 2 sessions of the week, the increase at the beginning of the week still helped the market gain points after the end of 1 trading week.

According to industry experts, the global economic situation, especially the US economy, and the frosty weather information in Brazil have both negative and positive impacts on the coffee market this week. Currently, coffee prices are nearly 2.5 times higher than at this time last year. Farmers are excited, but on the contrary, businesses are worried because of the scarce coffee supply. This situation is expected to continue to affect the export of this billion-dollar commodity.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (August 10) decreased by VND2,500/kg in key purchasing localities.

According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of this week's trading session (August 9), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange fell sharply, with the September 2024 delivery term down 110 USD, trading at 4,326 USD/ton. The November 2024 delivery term down 91 USD, trading at 4,162 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the September 2024 delivery term down 11.25 cents, trading at 234.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term down 9.10 cents, trading at 230.25 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Recent developments show that coffee is being heavily influenced by the international stock and currency markets.

On the other hand, the pressure of supply shortage is also a concern for roasters, as in the case of the Brazilian market, near-term futures prices decreased slightly but 2025 futures increased sharply. The reason is that the country's coffee growing areas are forecast to face colder weather this year. The coldest places have temperatures dropping by about 5 degrees Celsius. This information has affected the psychology of investors.

Meanwhile, in a recent news release, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimated that in the 2023-2024 coffee crop year, global coffee output will be around 10.68 million tons, down 5.83% compared to the previous crop year. In the 2024-2025 crop year, output will reach 10.62 million tons, continuing to decrease by around 60,000 tons compared to the previous crop year.

In addition, in terms of supply and demand, while supply from exporting countries remains basically low, on the contrary, the major importer, the European Union (EU), announced that it will strengthen quality control. Earlier this month, the EU sent a number of drafts to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to control the quality of imported food. Accordingly, coffee is the subject affected when the concentration of the active ingredient Zoxamide is adjusted from the current 0.05ppm to only 0.01ppm.

In addition, the EU has added two new active ingredients to coffee, Fenbuconazole and Penconazole, with an applicable concentration of 0.05ppm. These regulations will make it more difficult for products to enter the EU and contribute to price fluctuations. The comment period for these proposals is August 2024 and is expected to be applied in February 2025.