Coffee price forecast for August 8, 2024: Will a sharp increase return?

Of that total, imports from Brazil led with 489,115 tons, a 28.6% increase compared to the same period last year. However, the average export price of Brazilian coffee to the EU decreased by 7.8% in the first five months of the year, to 3,509 EUR/ton.

Vietnam continues to rank second with a volume of 340,598 tons and a value of over 1 billion EUR. Compared to the same period last year, export volume increased by only 1.5%, but the value increased by as much as 42.4%, thanks to a surge in the export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU, which rose by 40.3% to an average of 3,136 EUR/ton.

With this result, Vietnam's market share in the total value of EU coffee imports increased from 15.2% to 20%.

In the domestic market, as of 4:30 AM on August 7, 2024, according to www.giacaphe.com, coffee prices have fallen sharply by 2,000 VND compared to yesterday, ranging from 120,000 to 120,500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 120,500 VND/kg, with the highest prices in Dak Nong, Dak Lak , Gia Lai, and Kon Tum provinces also at 120,500 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,500 VND/kg, in Pleiku and La Grai it is 120,400 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province coffee is purchased at 120,500 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120,500 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 120,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak province, the price decreased by 500 VND compared to last week; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at approximately 122,500 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same rate of 122,400 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today, August 7, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

World coffee prices updated at 8:45 PM on August 7, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange: Robusta coffee futures contracts for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange were at 4,453 USD/ton, up 70 USD from the beginning of the trading session. The November 2024 contract was 4,268 USD/ton, up 78 USD; the January 2025 contract was 4,119 USD/ton, up 83 USD; and the March 2025 contract was 3,973 USD/ton, up 70 USD.

Coffee prices today, August 7, 2024: New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:45 PM on August 7, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 234.40 and 243.10 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was 243.10 cents/lb, up 7.15 cents/lb from the start of the session. The December 2024 contract was 239.60 cents/lb, up 6.65 cents/lb; the March 2025 contract was 236.90 cents/lb, up 6.15 cents/lb; and the May 2025 contract was 234.40 cents/lb, up 6.10 cents/lb.

Coffee prices today, August 7, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee prices. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:45 PM on August 7, 2024, increased sharply. Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was $302.40/ton, up 2.39%; the December 2024 contract was $298.60/ton, up 3.92%; the March 2025 contract was $292.50/ton, up 3.65%; and the May 2025 contract was $277.80/ton, up 9.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 7:00 PM to 2:35 AM (the following day), Vietnam time.

This is the first time in over a month that coffee prices have risen by triple digits. It's also the highest price in the past two weeks. The price increase on August 6th is believed to be due to the Rural Clima forecasting that temperatures in southern Brazil could drop to near freezing next week. Colder weather in Brazil has caused panic among investors, forcing some to close short positions, even though meteorologists have dismissed the risk of frost damaging coffee crops. In fact, according to several reputable forecasting agencies, the situation may not be as serious as the forecast suggests; it's just that coffee prices have become overly sensitive at this time.

According to Bloomberg, Arabica prices rebounded sharply after nearly a month of continuous declines, driven by forecasts of colder weather in leading producer Brazil, which encouraged roasters to buy.

The September contract surged as much as 5.8% in New York, recovering from Monday's sell-off that had added further downward pressure since mid-July. The futures contract subsequently pared its gains but still widened its spread over the December contract.

According to a broker, roasters are now offering to buy as they take advantage of the price drop to finalize purchase deals.

Colder weather in Brazil has spooked investors and forced some to close short positions, although meteorologists have dismissed the risk of frost that could harm coffee crops.