The world "holds its breath" before Donald Trump's inauguration
The world financial markets are calm as before a big storm in the context of Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration (early morning of January 21, Vietnam time). Observers are worried about unpredictable scenarios with unexpected policies that may be introduced right after Trump returns to the White House.
Just before Donald Trump took office, according to China Central Television, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President-elect Donald Trump had a phone call on the afternoon of January 17. President Xi Jinping expressed hope for a good start in relations with the US.
On his own social network Truth Social, on January 17, Mr. Trump said that the phone call was “good for both China and the United States.” Mr. Trump expected to “solve many problems (with China) and start immediately.”
Trump also said he had discussed trade balance, fentanyl, TikTok and other topics with Xi. “President Xi and I will do everything we can to make the world a safer and more peaceful place.”
On January 19, also on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said he would issue an executive order on Monday (January 20) "to delay the ban (of TikTok), so that an agreement can be reached to protect national security."
According to NBC, Mr. Trump said the ban on TikTok (a social network with 170 million users in the US) could be delayed by another 90 days. Previously, the Joe Biden administration forced this platform to either cut ties with its parent company ByteDance in China or be completely banned in the US by January 20.
Mr. Trump added that he wants the US to take a 50% stake in a joint venture (between the US-based TikTok platform and an American company). This joint venture could be worth hundreds, even trillions of dollars.
In addition, Mr. Trump's launch of the $TRUMP cryptocurrency attracted great attention, creating a fever, helping this currency skyrocket to 6 billion USD. More than 500 people became millionaires after investing in this entertaining memecoin. Mr. Trump is a promoter of the cryptocurrency market and wants the US to become the center for this type of asset.
According to Fox News, on the first day of his inauguration, Mr. Trump could sign about 100 executive orders or related unilateral actions, including some that reverse current regulations, including energy and immigration policies...
It is clear that there will be many unpredictable changes under Donald Trump's tenure in the White House. As with TikTok, the President-elect's views have changed. In 2020, he wanted to ban the app. But in 2024, Trump opened a TikTok account during his campaign.
Previously, Mr. Trump made a series of strong policy commitments, especially on imposing high tariffs on imported Chinese goods. However, on January 19, according to CNN, Mr. Trump said he wanted to visit China immediately after taking office, possibly within the first 100 days in office.
During his previous term, Mr. Trump was always willing to talk directly with leaders of countries, whether allies or opponents.
Gold price forecast to increase sharply, world economy unpredictable
With the unpredictability of policies and stances to increase the value of the USD, experts on Kitco predict that the price of gold will quickly exceed the threshold of 2,800 USD/ounce (87 million VND/tael) if Mr. Trump fulfills many of his campaign commitments, including imposing high taxes on imported goods from China.
According to Forex strategist James Stanley, Mr. Trump will not curb spending or balance the budget... Therefore, inflation in the US will become persistent. US economic instability increases as government debt escalates. This is also the reason why gold prices increased again last week, Bitcoin rose above the threshold of 105,000 USD/BTC.
The world economy is forecast to be unpredictable in 2025 with many economic relations being very tense. The world economy is forecast to continue to maintain a strong growth rate, but may also fall into a state of stagflation (economic stagnation while inflation is high).
The trade war that Donald Trump has restarted with China and many other countries may cause commodity prices to rise. The US dollar has recently surged, with the DXY index hitting a two-year high of nearly 110 points on January 13, before cooling to its current level of 109.3 points.
The strong USD has caused new turbulence in the global financial and monetary markets. It could lead to a withdrawal of indirect investment in many emerging markets, thereby putting pressure on exchange rates and economic stability in countries, including Vietnam.
However, there is not much room for DXY to increase. Mr. Trump also does not want the greenback to be too strong.
Mr. Tran Duc Anh, Director of Macro & Market Strategy, KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV), forecasts that DXY will basically move sideways or may decrease slightly in 2025 after the recent strong increase due to a possible decline in consumption in the US.
In a recent report, according to the world's largest financial management company BlackRock, the US economy could still fall into a hard landing if President Donald Trump makes policy mistakes. Inflation, which has been persistent, could rise even higher due to demand. Economic growth slows significantly. Valuations of businesses in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector are severely affected. The AI bubble bursts.
The US economic outlook also affects the economic growth rate of many countries, including Vietnam.
In theory, the US economy could still have a hard landing, but according to organizations, this possibility is not high. The US economy may slow down (compared to 2.9% in 2023 and about 2.8% in 2024), inflation may also increase. However, the business activities of this business community may still be positive thanks to Mr. Trump's strong tax reduction policies.
Besides, if the hot field and the large cash flow of the US AI still maintains a positive outlook, the world's No. 1 stock market will still go up even though it has set a new record high dozens of times in 2024. The US economy will benefit. On the contrary, the situation will be quite bad.
For Vietnam, the VND is still under pressure from the high USD, but the USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to be more stable. Regarding trade, Mr. Barry Weisblatt David from VnDirect Securities Company believes that Mr. Trump's upcoming policy of imposing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada will bring opportunities for Vietnam.
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