Buy stocks to wait for profit after Tet

All week up

On January 20, despite the fluctuations during the session, the stock market still maintained an upward trend. At the close, the VN-Index increased by 0.44 points to 1,249.55 points; while the HNX-Index decreased by 0.79 points to 221.69 points. Although the overall score only increased slightly, the number of stocks increasing in price accounted for the majority. This was the fourth consecutive increase, helping the overall VN-Index surpass the 1,250 point mark. Overall, the VN-Index recovered quite well last week, increasing by a total of over 19 points. However, the cautious sentiment still caused low liquidity with the transaction value on the HOSE floor hovering around just under VND10,000 billion.

PHOTO: DAO NGOC THACH

In the first 10 days of 2025, the prices of many stocks brought joy to investors when they continuously increased by about 5 - 10% and even higher such as HDB, PNJ, DGW, TRC, ACV...

According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDirect Securities Company, the positive recovery of the market was driven by positive macroeconomic information both domestically and internationally. Specifically, last week, the US released two consecutive inflation reports, the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI), both of which increased lower than expected. The more positive inflation data than expected helped prevent a major sell-off in the bond market, raising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates sooner than expected, thereby boosting the global stock market. Domestically, exchange rate pressure tended to cool down with the interbank USD/VND exchange rate decreasing by 60 VND. Improved market sentiment has promoted bottom fishing activities and positive stock prices, including the securities group, infrastructure construction and businesses related to the Can Gio port project.

This week, international financial markets are focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump and the roadmap for implementing proposed policies on tariffs, immigration policies and corporate income tax policies.

Overall, the risks surrounding Trump’s policies have been largely priced into the market over the past two months, so unless there is a major shock or change to these proposed policies, there will be no major market disruption in the coming trading week.

Regarding domestic developments, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh expects the recovery trend to be maintained in the last trading week of the year of the Dragon thanks to the momentum from the Q4/2024 business results announcement season. "We forecast that the profits of enterprises listed on the HOSE can maintain a net profit growth rate of over 20% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which will help improve stock valuations and promote the return of investment cash flow. At the same time, exchange rate pressure can continue to cool down and help untie the "bottleneck" of market sentiment, stimulating speculative cash flow to re-enter," said Mr. Hinh.

Stocks often rise before and after Lunar New Year.

Low trading volume, investors are in the mood for an early Tet holiday, but the market is still rising. So should we buy now to wait until after Tet At Ty 2025 to make a profit? That is the question of many investors as well as those with idle money at this time.

PHOTO: NGOC THANG

According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tri, Head of Analysis Department of Individual Clients, Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam, general statistics for many years show that the stock market has increased in the week before and the week after Tet. This year, this trend is also happening and may repeat. In addition, many positive factors support the stock market to maintain its upward trend. For example, the market valuation is in the low zone with the P/E (stock price/earnings) index according to Bloomberg of the Vietnamese market being more than 14 times, lower than the average of 5 years or also known as the zone below one standard deviation. This is a reasonable price zone for investors to accumulate and buy stocks. There are many industry groups that are at the lowest price zone in the past 1-2 years such as public investment, fertilizer or some securities stocks.

In addition, the upgrading of Vietnam's stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market continues to be a matter of interest and Mr. Dinh Minh Tri expects this to happen in September. For markets that are upgraded, there will be a period of 6-9 months of growth, so Vietnam will also follow this trend. In addition, during President Donald Trump's previous term, the USD turned to decline after he took office. If the greenback depreciates, foreign investors may reduce their net selling in the market. From there, Mr. Tri predicts that there will be a "wave" in the market in the first two quarters of the new year.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development of Individual Clients, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the stock market often has a positive trend before and after the Lunar New Year . Statistics for many years show that the VN-Index in January often increases the most in the year and the first quarter of the year is often the quarter of increase. The market has recently been positive despite low liquidity. Recently, the US macroeconomic data has been quite positive. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East have also gradually decreased. All of that information supports the development of the stock market. For domestic individual investors, some stocks that can be chosen at this time are banking stocks when the industry's profits still have a high growth rate. Next is the group of transportation stocks when freight rates recover and Vietnam's import-export activities increase, along with stocks in the tourism, aviation, chemical or technology industries.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh predicts that the VN-Index may close the year of the Dragon at 1,260 - 1,270 points. Investors can take advantage of the fluctuations in the session to disburse part of their portfolio before Tet, prioritizing sectors with supporting information such as banking, seaports - logistics, exports (textiles, seafood, wood products), construction infrastructure and energy (electricity, oil and gas). However, it is necessary to limit leverage and margin because keeping the margin position over Tet may not be the optimal choice.