Robusta coffee prices "stop falling, domestic prices rise to double the market's sensitivity to supply information"

Coffee prices have been trending downward for the past three weeks, reaching a one-month low on Thursday (August 1st) due to pressure from the nearly complete coffee harvest in Brazil. However, the Brazilian Real has depreciated against the US dollar, falling by as much as 6.37% over the past three weeks. This depreciation could spur increased selling activity in Brazil, as producers' profits are higher in the Real. Logistics from Brazil continue to face challenges, with some delays occurring at key export ports.

The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) reported that the country's coffee exports in July were 16,600 bags higher than the same period last year, reaching a total of 118,150 bags. However, the cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of the current coffee year decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year. Coffee production in Central American countries is usually less scrutinized by the market due to its relatively small volume; however, in the context of a year of challenging weather conditions due to El Niño and other related issues leading to tight supply, which has kept coffee prices within a high trading range, any information related to production at this time is highly sensitive for both trading markets.

In the context of seasonal coffee supply, some robusta-producing countries may be able to support consumer inventories, but these are currently lower, with exports from major producers Brazil for the Conilon Robusta harvest, Indonesia, and Uganda in mid-year, while supplies are tighter from leading robusta producer Vietnam, and this is unlikely to improve until the country's new harvest comes to market later in the year.

Domestic coffee prices closed the week (August 3rd) up 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg Average price Medium USD/VND exchange rate 25,010 0 DAK LAK 123,000 0 LAM DONG 122,600 0 GIA LAI 123,000 + 100 DAK NONG 123,100 + 100 Denmark - Vietnam: Don't miss The top scorer in Hanoi's 10th grade entrance exam achieved 29.75/30 points.With an entrance exam score of 29.75, Tran Minh Ha, a student from Newton Secondary and High School, became the top scorer in the 2026 public high school entrance exam. Iran has again blockaded the Strait of Hormuz.On June 19, Iran reimposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israel's refusal to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and the continued presence of US troops in the region. BREAKING NEWS: Iran again announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz.(NLDO) - Tehran has announced it will continue its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and will not participate in the planned nuclear talks with the US in Switzerland. (Source: giacaphe.com)

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in July 2024, Vietnam exported 62,000 tons of coffee, earning 340 million USD. In the first seven months of 2024, the country exported 964,000 tons of coffee to over 80 markets, with a value of 3.54 billion USD, a decrease of 13.8% in volume but a sharp increase of 30.9% in value compared to the same period last year. Among these, approximately 10 markets saw export values ​​exceeding 100 million USD each.

In July, coffee prices in the Central Highlands consistently stood at record highs, exceeding 120,000 VND/kg, at times reaching 130,000 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, current coffee prices are more than double.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the first eight months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from October 2023 to the end of July 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.32 million tons of coffee, a decrease of more than 11% compared to the same period of the 2022/2023 crop year. This export volume is equivalent to 86% of the 2023/2024 crop year's production.

Thus, according to Vicofa's calculations, Vietnam currently only has about 148,000 tons of coffee left for export in the remaining two months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from August to the end of September), until the new crop year begins harvesting in October this year. The supply of coffee for export is depending on the new crop year harvest, and it is predicted that coffee exports for the whole year could set a record of 5.5 - 6 billion USD...

The harvest in Vietnam is traditionally expected to begin in the last quarter of 2024, but shipments to the consumer market will not begin until early 2025.