Coffee price today 8/5/2024

World coffee prices recovered slightly thanks to the fall of the US dollar, reaching a four-month low. Pressure from the coffee harvest in Brazil combined with the weakening of the Real has combined to push down coffee prices.

Domestic coffee prices started this week trading at around VND122,600 - 123,100/kg, after losing an average of VND700/kg last week.

According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session last weekend (August 2), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange adjusted slightly upward, the delivery period in September 2024 increased by 2 USD, trading at 4,227 USD/ton. The delivery period in November 2024 increased by 5 USD, trading at 4,088 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the September 2024 delivery term up 3.25 cents, trading at 230.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term increased 3.15 cents, trading at 229.55 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of last week's session (August 3) increased by 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Coffeeam)

Robusta coffee closed up very slightly over the weekend, just $2, but the important thing is that the market stopped falling. Covering activity from futures contracts appeared on Friday (August 2).

Coffee prices have been on a downward trend for the past three weeks, hitting a one-month low on Thursday (August 1) as the pressure of the coffee harvest in Brazil is almost complete. However, the Brazilian real has weakened against the US dollar, falling as much as 6.37% in the past three weeks. This depreciation could spur more selling in Brazil, as producers are more profitable at the real price. Logistics from Brazil continue to be challenging, with some delays occurring at major export ports.

The Costa Rican National Coffee Institute (ICAFE) reported that the country’s coffee exports in July were 16,600 bags higher than the same month last year, reaching a total of 118,150 bags. However, the cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of the current coffee year were down 5% compared to the same period last year. Coffee production in Central America is often overlooked by the market because of its small volume, but in the context of a year of weather stress due to El Nino and many other related issues leading to tight supplies, helping coffee prices remain within the high trading range, any information related to production at this time is very sensitive for the two trading markets.

In a seasonal coffee flow context, some robusta-producing countries may support consumer stocks but are currently lower, with exports from major producer Brazil for its mid-year Robusta Conilon harvest, Indonesia and Uganda, while supplies are tighter from top robusta producer Vietnam, unlikely to improve until the country’s new crop begins to hit the market later in the year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in July 2024, Vietnam exported 62 thousand tons of coffee, bringing in 340 million USD. In the first 7 months of 2024, the country exported 964 thousand tons of coffee to more than 80 markets, with a turnover of 3.54 billion USD, down 13.8% in volume, but up 30.9% in turnover compared to the same period last year. Of which, about 10 markets had export turnover increasing by over 100 million USD.

In July, coffee prices in the Central Highlands continuously stood at record highs, above 120,000 VND/kg, at one point reaching 130,000 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, the current coffee price is twice as high.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the first 8 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from October 2023 to the end of July 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.32 million tons of coffee, down more than 11% compared to the same period in the 2022/2023 crop year. This export volume is equivalent to 86% of the 2023/2024 crop year output.

Thus, according to Vicofa's calculations, Vietnam currently has only about 148,000 tons of coffee left to export in the remaining 2 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from August to the end of September), until the new crop year begins to be harvested in October this year. Coffee sources for export are waiting for the new harvest year and it is forecasted that the whole year's coffee exports could set a record of 5.5 - 6 billion USD...

Harvest in Vietnam is traditionally expected to begin in the last quarter of 2024, with shipments not expected to start flowing into consumer markets until early 2025.