Coffee price today 8/4/2024

World coffee prices increased slightly on both exchanges at the end of the week, after many consecutive sessions of sharp decline at the beginning of the week.

Domestic coffee prices last week lost 700 VND/kg, currently trading in the range of 122,600 - 123,100 VND/kg.

The coffee market has been plummeting for three consecutive weeks. After a sharp decline last week on both domestic and international exchanges, the price of robusta coffee for September delivery decreased by 75 USD/ton. The price of arabica coffee for September delivery increased by 0.25 cent/lb. Last week, the pressure of the coffee harvest from Brazil combined with the weakening of the Real combined to push down coffee prices. At the end of the week, the USD fell sharply, hitting a four-month low, helping the price of arabica coffee recover, thanks to which robusta on the London exchange also increased slightly.

Favorable weather in Vietnam and Brazil has eased concerns about next-season coffee production. However, in the longer term, climate change is expected to reduce coffee production in 2024/25. As of July 23, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 81% complete. Export seasons in Mexico and Central America are coming to an end, with supplies tightening.

Domestic coffee prices on August 3 increased by 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: ohman.vn)

According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session of the weekend (August 2), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange slightly increased again, the delivery period in September 2024 increased by 2 USD, trading at 4,227 USD/ton. The delivery period in November 2024 increased by 5 USD, trading at 4,088 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the September 2024 delivery term up 3.25 cents, trading at 230.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term increased 3.15 cents, trading at 229.55 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

As the world’s largest exporter of robusta, Vietnam currently has limited coffee supplies, both in the population and in corporate reserves. Vietnam’s robusta coffee output is expected to continue to decline in the 2024/25 crop year.

According to industry insiders, coffee gardens have been negatively affected by the prolonged heat wave that has negatively impacted coffee gardens in the Central Highlands, along with the development of pests such as mealybugs.

The Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicoffa) reported that, due to less-than-ideal weather conditions and the appearance of mealybugs and red spiders, robusta coffee production could decrease by 15% to 20% in the next crop year.

Vietnam's robusta coffee output for the 2023/24 crop year is estimated at around 26.7 million bags, each weighing 60kg.

In the event of a decline in production as forecast, the 2024/25 crop year could reach only 21.4 to 22.7 million bags, significantly lower than the 27.85 million bags estimated by the USDA.

Previously, according to the USDA, global coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year as of September 30 is estimated at 169.2 million bags (60kg), down 2.2 million bags compared to the previous forecast. Exports in the same period are also forecast at only 119.5 million bags, down 0.4 million bags. Of which, Vietnam and Indonesia decreased by 2.6 million bags, Central America decreased by 2.7 million bags but Brazil increased by 2 million bags. End-of-season inventories are at about 23.9 million bags.