Overall, in the first seven months of this year, the export price of coffee increased by 52.3% to an average of 3,682 USD/ton. As a result, although export volume decreased by 12.4% compared to the same period last year, the revenue still increased by 33.5%, reaching 979,353 tons, worth 3.6 billion USD.
Coffee prices today, August 14, 2024
World coffee prices fell sharply after a surge, due to a market correction.
Domestic coffee prices fell by nearly 2,000 VND/kg, trading in the range of 118,000 - 118,500 VND/kg.
Experts believe the market is adjusting to a stable level ahead of the release of US inflation data later today (August 14). Therefore, speculators on the exchange are not keen on letting the market surge at this time, so coffee prices have reversed course and corrected just before rising too sharply.
Earlier, concerns about frost in Brazil had driven robusta coffee prices sharply higher, reaching their highest level in nearly four weeks. According to media reports, unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil, with colder temperatures and forecasts of frost, have been observed. Many worry that, following the recent drought, frost could significantly impact coffee production in the next crop year in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná – major coffee-growing regions of Brazil.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) also reported that Brazil, which supplies 40% of the world's coffee production, suffered a 20% crop loss in 2021 due to the combined effects of frost and drought. Indonesia recorded a 20% decrease in robusta production last year due to El Nino – an extreme weather phenomenon that only showed signs of easing this year.
However, that remains a matter for the next crop year. Currently, coffee prices are being influenced by developments in the financial and monetary markets, as well as the upcoming interest rate policy of the US. At this time, many believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may soon ease monetary policy without waiting for inflation to fall to 2%. Because a change in US monetary policy could happen soon, after coffee prices surged to near record highs, investors quickly sold to lock in profits, causing the market to reverse sharply and fall immediately after opening.
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| Domestic coffee prices fell by nearly 2,000 VND/kg in key purchasing areas. (Source: Lecafebmt) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading on August 13th, robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange reversed sharply downwards. The September 2024 delivery contract fell by $157, trading at $4,375/ton. The November 2024 delivery contract fell by $172, trading at $4,187/ton. Average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange also fell sharply, with the September 2024 contract dropping 8.15 cents to 232.7 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 contract fell 9.50 cents to 229.05 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices fell by nearly 2,000 VND/kg in key purchasing areas. (Unit: VND/kg)
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
According to data from the General Department of Customs, in July, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 76,982 tons, worth US$381.2 million, a decrease of 29.3% in volume but an increase of 23.8% in value compared to the same period last year. Notably, the average export price of coffee in the past month reached a record high of US$4,951/ton, an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous month and a significant increase of 75.1% (equivalent to US$2,123/ton) compared to the same period in 2023.
With favorable pricing, the coffee industry is expected to achieve a record export value of $5 billion this year.
Thus, at the end of the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to July this year), Vietnam's coffee exports reached over 1.3 million tons, out of a total production of approximately 1.47 million tons for the current crop year, equivalent to 90% and a decrease of 12.4% compared to the same period of the previous crop year.
Excluding carryover stocks from the previous year, Vietnam will only have approximately 130,000 tons of coffee left for export in the remaining two months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from August to the end of September). This year's reduced production, coupled with low carryover stocks from the previous year, is the main reason for the continuous decline in Vietnam's coffee exports over the past six months.
The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will continue to decline in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. Supply is expected to increase again by October, when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's coffee production for the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated at 1.47 million tons – the lowest level in four years, a 20% decrease compared to the 2022-2023 crop year. Coffee production for the 2024-2025 crop year is likely to continue to decline due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1482024-gia-ca-phe-do-san-do-chot-loi-gia-xuat-khau-tang-523-nguon-viet-nam-thuc-te-con-bao-nhieu-282466.html
