Pepper price forecast on August 7, 2024 continues to decline sharply. Over the past month, domestic pepper prices have tended to move sideways after reaching an 8-year high in June 2024 (at 180,000 VND/kg).

As of early August 2024, pepper prices in the Central Highlands, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, and Dong Nai fluctuated around VND 148,000/kg. Previously, in the first 6 months of this year, the price of this agricultural product experienced a sharp increase of 125% from about VND 80,000 (at the beginning of the year) to VND 180,000/kg (in mid-June), amid market concerns about supply shortages.

VPSA estimates that Vietnam's pepper output in 2024 will only reach about 170,000 tons, down 10% compared to the previous year, which is also the lowest level in the past 5 years.

Meanwhile, data shows that by the end of June, Vietnam exported an estimated 142,500 tons, with a turnover of 634 million USD, down 6.8% in volume but up 30% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

That means, there are still 7-8 months left until the new pepper harvest (expected after Lunar New Year from February 2025), while the amount of goods left in the hands of people, agents and businesses is not much.

Domestic pepper supply is under pressure to decrease, plus pepper output in other countries such as Brazil and Indonesia is forecast to decrease this year. And this will continue to put pressure on pepper prices in the last months of the year.

Pepper price forecast on August 7, 2024: Continuing the sharp decline, is the market unlikely to have a shocking increase?

In the domestic market, pepper price today, August 6, 2024, in the Southeast region decreased by 6,000 VND/kg in some localities compared to yesterday, trading around 140,000 - 141,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Vung Tau and Binh Phuoc provinces is 141,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, Dak Lak pepper price was purchased at 141,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) was purchased at 140,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today was recorded at 141,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today decreased by 6,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it is currently at 141,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices today remain at 141,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic pepper price on August 6 , 2024

Update on world pepper prices from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 7,176 USD/ton, and the price of Muntok white pepper at 8,793 USD/ton.

The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper was at USD 6,750/ton. The price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper remained stable at USD 8,500/ton; the price of this country's ASTA white pepper reached USD 10,400/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper prices remain high at 6,000 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 6,600 USD/ton for 550 g/l; and 8,800 USD/ton for white pepper.

There are still 7-8 months left until the new harvest, while the amount of inventory in the domestic market is not much. Low inventory, along with the decrease in pepper production in countries such as Brazil and Indonesia, will continue to put pressure on pepper prices in the last months of the year.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) believes that the shortage of supply will cause pepper prices to continue to have unusual fluctuations in the coming time, such as on June 11, when the price increased sharply by VND20,000/kg in the morning but then dropped sharply again in the afternoon.

However, Mr. Le Duc Huy - General Director of Dak Lak 2-9 Import-Export Company Limited (Simexco) - a business in the top 7 pepper export market share, said that although pepper prices have increased sharply, sellers are not in a hurry, many growers have not sold yet but choose to wait for prices to increase further, sometimes causing them to lose opportunities.

Specifically, Mr. Huy analyzed, Vietnam's inventory is about 30%, equivalent to 50,000 - 55,000 tons. However, in the first half of this year, Vietnam's traditional purchasing markets imported a large amount of pepper. This means that they are not in a hurry to buy more goods and are waiting.

Therefore, according to Mr. Huy, although the shortage of supply continues, pepper prices will hardly increase sharply like at the beginning of the year.

“ Pepper prices are likely to remain at this level in the near future. Farmers still expect prices to increase dramatically again, but in my opinion, this is very difficult, ” said Mr. Huy.