Stocks in March face many uncertain risks

VN-Index faces correction pressure, investors need to be cautious

Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that VN-Index had a volatile trading week when it peaked at 1,342 points in the middle of the week thanks to the rebound from large-cap stocks such as VIC, VHM and VCB. However, the cash flow focused on the pillar group did not spread widely, causing the market's growth momentum to quickly lose momentum and correct back to around 1,330 points. Notably, the average trading liquidity during the week increased the most in the past 5 months, reflecting the active participation of cash flow, but profit-taking pressure also increased.

In the last session of the week on March 14, VN-Index mainly traded above the reference level in the morning before falling sharply from around 2:00 p.m. under great pressure from FPT shares. Leading stocks such as VIC, VHM and VCB no longer contributed much to the index as in previous sessions, causing the supply force to overwhelm with the number of stocks losing points reaching 283 stocks. Market liquidity remained high at over VND23 trillion, a remarkable figure considering the average liquidity level in recent times. Foreign investors continued to net sell slightly with a value of VND225.98 billion, focusing on two stocks FPT and DBC. At the end of the week, VN-Index closed at 1,326.15 points, up slightly by 0.1 points (+0.01%) compared to the previous week.

Regarding technical analysis, VCBS said that on the hourly chart (1H frame), the MACD indicator reversed downward after forming two peaks and showed no signs of ending the downtrend at the end of the session on March 14. The DMI and RSI indicators crossed sideways, indicating that the market is struggling to keep the index at a balanced level. On the daily chart (1D frame), the VN-Index closed with a gravestone doji candlestick pattern and liquidity continued to be high, indicating a strong increase in supply at the end of the session. The MACD indicator continued to form the first peak, which increased the probability that the market would continue to correct next week.

Given the above situation, VCBS believes that the adjustment pressure will continue in the short term after the 8-week consecutive increase of VN-Index. The fluctuations to test supply and demand are inevitable in the coming week.

Going sideways with the red of the information technology group

Commenting on the stock market outlook for the week of March 17-21, 2025, Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) assessed that the VN-Index has had 8 consecutive weeks of increasing points from the price range of 1,220 points to the 1,350 point range. After surpassing the strong resistance level of 1,300 points last week, the VN-Index showed signs of fluctuating within a narrow range with a very strong differentiation between industry groups and stocks with different capitalizations. At the end of the week, the VN-Index increased slightly by 0.01%, closing at 1,326.15 points, while the VN30 index decreased by -0.20% to 1,387.03 points. The weakness occurred when both the VN-Index and VN30 encountered strong resistance at the old peak of May 2022, causing selling pressure to increase.

Market breadth recorded negative differentiation with the number of stocks and industry groups losing points overwhelmingly. In particular, the information technology, oil and gas, industry, insurance, construction and port - transportation groups were under strong selling pressure with a sudden increase in trading volume, reflecting the psychology of taking profits and cutting losses in the short term. Meanwhile, only a few stocks recorded a sudden positive liquidity. Total market liquidity increased slightly, but trading volume on the HOSE floor decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Foreign investors continued their strong net selling trend, recording a level of -1,703.64 billion VND on the HOSE last week.

In the derivatives market, the VN30F2503 futures contract decreased by -0.20 points (-0.01%) and closed at 1,385 points, 2.03 points lower than the VN30. Longer terms such as VN30F2504, VN30F2506, VN30F2509 also had negative differences from -2.53 points to -6.83 points compared to the VN30. The total contract volume increased by +1.34% compared to the previous week, fluctuating around the 20-week average. The short-term trend of VN30F2503 is expected to continue moving sideways in the range of 1,380 - 1,400 points. Note that next week there will be a derivatives contract expiration session on Thursday, which could create big fluctuations for VN30.

Regarding the upcoming outlook, SHS believes that VN-Index will maintain its short-term growth momentum with the nearest support zone around 1,315 points and a stronger support level at 1,300 points. However, the index may face correction pressure to retest this important psychological support zone. Selling pressure has increased sharply in many stocks after a series of increases over the past 7-8 weeks, especially when VN-Index and VN30 encountered strong resistance at 1,350 points and 1,400 points.

SHS believes that this is not an attractive price range to continue to disburse more. The internal market is showing signs of weakening as many small and medium-cap stocks have been under strong selling pressure in the past week. Meanwhile, there are only a few short-term opportunities in real estate stocks or some codes in the VN30 group that have not increased too much.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-se-tiep-tuc-van-dong-trong-bien-do-hep-161440.html