World macro impact causes VN-Index to "drop" nearly 50 points

Starting the week of August 5, the Vietnamese stock market saw red when the VN-Index plummeted by nearly 49 points. At the end of August 5, the VN-Index was only at 1,188 points.

Many securities companies explain that the negative fluctuations in the world's macro economy have affected investor psychology. KBSV experts believe that the performance of Vietnamese stocks is similar to that of major markets such as the US, Japan, and South Korea, which are also showing signs of decline.

The main impact came from the sharp increase in unemployment figures in the US to 4.3% in the last session of last week, causing global investors to fear a recession.

At the same time, the Q2 financial reports of technology companies were not positive, reducing expectations for the booming AI investment activities.

Another notable change is that the Bank of Japan has had to raise interest rates after nearly a decade of easing. This has caused pressure on cash flow for many investment channels.

What scenarios will VN-Index go through in August?

A recent analysis report by Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam (MASVN) said that the overall business picture in the second quarter was positive but did not help improve investor sentiment.

Records on the HoSE floor show that the net profit of enterprises on the stock exchange reached 105,000 billion VND, up 16.1% over the same period and up 5.1% over the first quarter.

Notably, the banking group's profit grew by 19%, the raw materials group also grew by 16%, and retail's net profit increased by 23% compared to the previous quarter.

Trading performance in July recorded a net purchase of VND9,230 billion by individual investors while foreign investors were net sellers of VND8,370 billion. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have net sold VND60,400 billion on the Vietnamese stock market.

With the above developments and negative signals from the world macro economy, Mirae Assets Securities sets out possible scenarios for the VN-Index in the rest of August.

In the least optimistic scenario, the market is expected to find demand in low valuation areas such as the 1,050 to 1,150 point range. This support area is expected to be based on the assessment of macroeconomic improvement in Vietnam and the recovery trend of businesses on the stock market.