As the world awaits Iran’s response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran early on July 31, experts say the situation could develop in two directions: a full-scale war in the still-unstable region, or a quick solution to the conflict in the Gaza Strip.

Israel faces retaliation not only from Iran but also from Hezbollah in Lebanon, after Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr was killed in a precision missile strike on Beirut that Israel claimed responsibility for, said retired Marine Corps Colonel Stephen Ganyard, a former US deputy assistant secretary of state.

According to Mr. Ganyard, the successive assassinations of senior leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah could lead to an all-out war in the region, or it could be part of a larger plan by Israel to escalate tensions with Hezbollah and Iran to the point where the latter decides to resolve the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

“There’s an old strategy… called escalation to de-escalate,” Mr. Ganyard, an ABC News contributor, said on August 1. “So what the Israelis are doing here seems to be accelerating things, perhaps to reset negotiations with Hamas on Gaza, to calm down Hezbollah, and to make it clearer to Iran that they are indeed a target in the future if their attacks continue, and that their proxies are vulnerable to Israeli attacks.”

Mr Haniyeh was killed early on July 31 when a long-range missile fired from an Israeli aircraft struck a guesthouse in Tehran where he was staying while attending the inauguration of new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian officials said. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has called for "revenge".

A combination of factors was needed to carry out the attack, including intelligence to know exactly where the target was and long-range weapons capable of breaking individual windows if necessary, Mr. Ganyard said.

The assassination of Mr Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran is unacceptable to Iran and they need to retaliate. According to Mr Ganyard, the question now is how and to what extent Iran will retaliate.

The real challenge for Iran is how far they will go because Mr Haniyeh is not “one of their own,” Mr Ganyard explained, noting that Hamas is a Sunni organization while Iran’s leadership is Shia.

Iran's response could be similar to the one it made to Israel in April when it launched 300 drones and missiles at targets in Israel in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria, that killed seven people, including a senior Iranian commander.

“We’ll have to wait and see what happens. How far will Iran retaliate? What does retaliation really mean? How far are they willing to go to that line without going to war with the Israelis?” Ganyard said.

The expert also said he believes the bigger threat to Israel is Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Hezbollah has somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 surface-to-surface missiles that they can strike Israel with, some of them precision weapons, which means the entire Israeli infrastructure is at risk,” said Mr. Ganyard.

“So the threat in the north, Hezbollah, is really what worries Israel. Also the question is what is Hezbollah's response, and is Hezbollah willing to start that war?”, the expert asked.

Minh Duc (According to ABC News)