Houthi supporters hold guns next to a picture of assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, during a march in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen. (Source: Reuters).

Last minute effort

Many countries condemned the escalation and called on all parties to exercise restraint. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a phone call with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty to discuss efforts to ease tensions and prevent the Middle East from falling into a spiral of conflict.

In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Jordanian King Abdallah ll called on all parties to “make further efforts” to avoid the region “falling into chaos” and “to stop unilateral actions by Israel that could add fuel to the fire.”

On August 4, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Iran to meet with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani to defuse the war. Jordan is an ally of the United States and is expected to act as a bridge to convey messages between the West and Iran.

It is reported that US President Joe Biden reminded Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to stop raising the temperature in the region; at the same time, he warned and persuaded President Masoud Pezeshkian, "if Iran restrains itself, there will be a better chance of improving relations with the West!"

However, the US is still increasing its forces in the region, ready to protect Israel. Previously, the US and many Western countries considered Hamas a "terrorist organization", indirectly justifying Israel's actions. Despite the United Nations calling for an investigation into war crimes committed by both Israel and Hamas. It will be difficult to be objective and mediate if one side is biased.

The moves of the two opponents

Iran's leaders have said the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran crossed many red lines and there is no room for compromise. Tehran is discussing with Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc. measures to respond and coordinate actions; calling for a meeting of the Islamic Organization, demanding the application of sanctions against Israel.

The move shows Iran is determined to act. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the hard-line supreme authority in Iran, has ordered an attack on Israel. Many Iranian leaders believe that the more restraint, the more Israel will be provoked. If Iran and its allies are determined to retaliate, the scale and form of the attack will likely be larger and more fierce than the retaliatory attack on Iran nearly four months ago.

Israel is also preparing in every way, building bunkers to shelter its leaders, facing a multi-pronged, multi-front war, even ready to launch a preemptive strike, as Iran concentrates its forces. It is reported that the head of the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence agency, and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency, accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of doing everything he could to prevent the signing of a deal with Hamas. But it seems that the militants are gaining the upper hand.

Can the detonator be removed?

The Middle East is in a state of being loaded and the safety pin has been removed. Many believe that it is too late to remove it, and that a retaliatory attack by Iran and its allies will take place, but the scale and form are still unclear!

Some countries are still making last-minute diplomatic efforts in the hope of preventing a catastrophe. Their basis is that the Iranian leadership is still “ambiguous” about the author of the assassination of the Hamas leader! Tehran and its allies are considering the consequences, not yet decisive about the time, scale, and form of the retaliatory attack!

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on August 5 called on all parties in the Middle East to avoid escalation. Mr. Blinken said the US is working to prevent further escalation in the Middle East, and urged Israel and Hamas to break the cycle of violence through a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, according to a joint statement on the same day, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein agreed to make every effort to avoid escalation in the region. Italy currently holds the rotating presidency of the G7 group.

Previously, in a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on August 3, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani emphasized that easing tensions in the Middle East depends on ending the conflict between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip and between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

That is true, but it is a long-term issue. The immediate priority is to immediately defuse the retaliatory attack by Iran and its allies and the Israeli response. The most acceptable option is for the retaliatory attack to continue but on a limited scale.

To do so, the West must try to persuade, even bargain for concessions, if Iran restrains itself. All eyes are on the US and its close allies in the Middle East. The world and the region are holding their breath. Israel has made a strong statement but is somewhat hesitant before the conflict breaks out.