What scenario would happen if Iran retaliated against Israel?

It has been nearly a week since both Haniyeh and Shukr were killed, but there have been no major attacks on Israel, while diplomats are frantically moving across the region in an effort to prevent any escalation.

Iran has vowed to retaliate, with foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani saying regional stability could only come from "punishing the aggressor".

The question now is: What will this response look like? Will it be a carefully calculated effort to avoid a regional war — like Iran’s attack on Israel in April? Or will Iran’s leaders believe that the latest attacks require a more forceful response, even if it risks sparking a broader conflict?

Will Iran make a more rational decision?

Iran’s next response is imminent, analysts say, but likely to be measured. While Haniyeh’s assassination on Iranian soil, in the country’s capital, is a major insult to the Iranian government, many experts say it does not change Iran’s desire to avoid a broader regional war with Israel and its biggest ally, the United States.

“I don’t believe escalation is on the minds of Iranian decision-makers,” Reza Akbari, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Institute for War and Peace (IWPR), told Al Jazeera. “But of course, Iranian policymakers are not unified.”

Iranian politics has long been divided between hardliners and reformists. The country's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, widely described as a centrist or reformist, has been in office for just a few weeks.

“The game that the Iranians are trying to figure out is how to retaliate and send a signal that aggressive actions like assassinations cannot take place on Iranian soil without setting off a cycle of escalation,” Akbari said.

While Iran’s top leadership has promised “severe revenge,” its continued diplomatic engagement with intermediaries has reassured some analysts that there is little appetite for a broader war. Tehran recently hosted the foreign minister of Jordan, a country with a “multi-faceted” relationship with Israel and a U.S. ally.

Ori Goldberg, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst, told Al Jazeera: "I get the sense that Iran is talking to everyone in the Middle East except Israel and talking to pretty much every country outside the region. The more evidence of coordination we have and the more time Iran takes, the more likely it is that Iran's response will be controlled and restrained."

He added that Iran has an opportunity to present itself as a rational partner to the world, especially at a time when Netanyahu is eroding relations with traditional partners.

No possibility is ruled out.

According to political analyst Ori Goldberg, Prime Minister Netanyahu could be the factor that ignites the Middle East “powder furnace”. He said that for Netanyahu, ending the war could end his career because it could lead to early elections.

Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul last summer led to protests that rocked Israel, with the public demanding his resignation. So Netanyahu sees his opportunity in the Iranian threat.

“There is a general consensus in Israeli politics that Netanyahu wants a war with Iran and he has been working toward that,” Goldberg said.

“Does the Israeli public want this? No,” the analyst added. “The Israeli people are tired, but it’s not like there’s any alternative vision or plan being proposed by the opposition.”

The next question is whether Iran's response will include coordination with its allies in the "axis of resistance," particularly Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, or will each group act on its own?

Hezbollah and Iran will likely be in close communication about their response, although any attack would be strategic and an attempt to avoid adding fuel to the fire, said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.

“While Hezbollah is expected to coordinate with Iran, the overarching strategy will likely focus on a prolonged, controlled conflict that serves multiple strategic interests for Iran without escalating into a full-blown regional war,” he said.

For now, if Iran strikes the right balance in its response, a full-blown regional war will be avoided. Instead, a simmering tension will continue, with Iran engaging Israel primarily through its regional allies in the “axis of resistance.” And this coordination is intended to present a broad front against Israel.

Which forces could join Iran?

If the above scenarios play out as predicted, which allies could join Tehran in the war? Here are some of the most likely names:

Iraqi militia

In Iraq, Iran has supported a range of forces mobilized in 2014 to fight the Islamic State group. The state-sanctioned, mostly Shiite militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have grown into a powerful political faction, equipped with missiles, drones and other weapons. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates their force at about 180,000 fighters.

Hezbollah of Lebanon

Hezbollah was founded in 1982 amid Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel remains wary of Hezbollah, especially given its massive missile arsenal and its battle-hardened forces, which also back the Assad government in Syria.

While Israel has a sophisticated missile defense system, including the Iron Dome system, a barrage of fire from Hezbollah and others could overwhelm the country at once. Estimates suggest Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in 2021 that the group had 100,000 fighters.

Palestinian militia

Despite being Sunni, both Palestinian militant groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, receive weapons and other equipment from Iran. However, these groups have been heavily attacked by Israel. In Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the military said it killed about 15,000 Palestinian militants.

Yemen's Houthi forces

The Houthis have held Yemen's capital Sanaa since 2014 as part of that country's brutal war. They follow Zaydi Shiites, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen.

The group has carried out drone and missile attacks that have severely disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and even reached into Israel. The Houthis claim they have recruited 200,000 more fighters since launching their attacks against Israel.

Nguyen Khanh