Iran could attack this week

Several media reports late on August 11 suggested that Iran would launch a major attack on Israel in the coming days.

Axios on August 11 quoted two informed sources as saying that Israel currently assesses that Iran will launch a direct attack on the Jewish state in the next few days, possibly before ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip resume on August 15.

Kan public radio and Channel 13 news also reported on the evening of August 11 that Israel's updated assessment is that Tehran intends to launch a major attack this week.

Channel 13 reported, without citing sources, that there could be a combined attack by both Iran and Hezbollah, possibly simultaneously or in succession.

The channel pointed to pressure from France as one factor that may have delayed Iran and its allies from taking action. The European power may have pressured Iran and Hezbollah not to launch a major attack during the 2024 Paris Olympics, which end on August 11.

The media reports mark a reversal of previously widely circulated assumptions that Iran – under heavy international pressure – had abandoned its initial intention to launch a large-scale attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the incident.

Instead, Iran is expected to leave the response to Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, whose senior military commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut hours before Haniyeh’s assassination.

Despite speculation of a looming major attack, Israeli military (IDF) spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on the evening of August 11 that there had been no changes to emergency instructions for civilians.

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"Following the latest reports regarding Iran's plans, we would like to clarify that, at this stage, there are no changes to the instructions of the Home Front Command," Hagari said on X.

“The IDF and the defense establishment monitor developments in the Middle East, focusing on Iran and Hezbollah, and continuously assess the situation,” Hagari said, adding that the Israeli military was “deployed and prepared at a high level of readiness.”

“If we need to change the guidelines, we will update in an orderly announcement on official channels,” the spokesperson added.

Earlier on August 11, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told combat recruits that Israel would operate in a way it had never operated before if attacked by Iran and Hezbollah in an unprecedented way.

Axios also reported that on August 11, Mr. Gallant spoke by phone with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told his US counterpart that Iran's military preparations showed that Iran was preparing for a large-scale attack on Israel.

The Pentagon later confirmed that the call had taken place, adding that Austin had ordered the deployment of the guided-missile submarine USS Georgia to the Middle East amid escalating tensions. According to the Times of Israel, the submarine deployment is rare for the US.

In a statement, the Pentagon added that Mr. Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) aircraft carrier strike group to move more quickly to the area.

CVN-72, which is based in the Asia-Pacific region, has been ordered to the region to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. Last week, Austin said the Lincoln would arrive later this month.

It’s not yet clear what the Pentagon chief’s latest order means, or how quickly the CVN-72 strike group will arrive in the Middle East. The carrier strike group includes F-35 fighter jets along with F/A-18 fighters.

Gaza ceasefire talks

This weekend, ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip will resume at the request of the leaders of the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

Ahead of this important event, CNN quoted an informed source in Israel as saying on August 11 that Hamas' new political leader, Yahya Sinwar, who replaced Haniyeh, wants a ceasefire agreement. This is a message that mediators from Egypt and Qatar have conveyed to Israeli officials in recent days.

Whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants a deal remains to be seen.

Netanyahu's allies have told journalists and other government officials that the Israeli prime minister is willing to reach a deal, regardless of the impact on his ruling coalition, two Israeli sources told CNN.

But Israel's security establishment remains deeply skeptical about the willingness to reach a deal given fierce opposition from far-right ministers in Mr Netanyahu's coalition.

What is clear is that Mr Netanyahu will face enormous pressure from the US this week to agree to a ceasefire and release the hostages.

But even as mediators told Israel that Mr Sinwar wanted a deal, Hamas on 11 August cast doubt on its participation in the next round of ceasefire talks scheduled for 15 August.

Hamas is said to have asked the mediators to implement a ceasefire plan based on previous ceasefire talks such as those launched by US President Joe Biden and the UN Security Council in July.

Mediators will meet with Israeli and Hamas negotiating teams in Cairo or Doha next week. But talks are already underway with technical delegations working “around the clock” to hammer out key details ahead of the August 15 meeting, Israeli sources said.

The talks come at a time of extreme tension in the Middle East, with signs that Iran will reconsider the scale and timing of its retaliation against Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza – a possibility that could put further pressure on Israel to reach a deal to avoid the risk of all-out war in the region.

Minh Duc (According to Times of Israel, CNN, New Arab)