On July 31, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran while attending the inauguration of new Iranian President Masuod Pezeshkian. Many sources said he was killed by a remote-controlled bomb detonated by the Israeli military. The day before, Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was also killed in an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of Lebanon’s capital Beirut.

People pray at the Imam Abd al-Wahhab Mosque during the funeral of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2. (Source: EFE-EPA)

Although the Israeli government has not officially acknowledged it, they have repeatedly warned that they will hunt down and kill Ismail Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders wherever they are, so all eyes are on Tel Aviv. The two assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders within 12 hours shocked the Middle East and the world. It exposed many major problems.

First , it deepens the long-standing hatred between Hamas, Hezbollah and some other armed Islamic organizations. Hamas and Hezbollah were dealt a fatal blow when they lost two important figures, but it does not mean their disintegration or collapse. The assassination did not make Hamas and Hezbollah afraid, but on the contrary, it encouraged them to step up their retaliatory attacks. The conflict will have a new escalation.

Second , it put Iranian leaders in a difficult position, unable to not act. Mr. Ismail Haniyeh was a “dear guest” attending one of Iran’s most important political events. The time and location of the assassination were quite sensitive to Tehran. It also exposed the weaknesses of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in intelligence, air defense, security, and protection of VIPs at an important event.

After the presidential election, Tehran has many things to deal with and faces many difficulties. But Israel's "slap in the face" has forced Iran into a situation where it cannot help but retaliate. Otherwise, the leaders will "lose credibility" with the people, and their position as the leading flag with regional allies and partners will decline. Iran's supreme spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared, "Our mission is to avenge our beloved guest..." The order has been given, the flag has been raised. The question is how will they act?

Whatever the option, the scale and intensity must be large enough. If it is less effective than the air attack on Israel nearly 4 months ago (although it implied that it did not want to escalate tensions), the symbol of Iran's military power will be reduced, possibly encouraging Tel Aviv to step up its military attacks.

Third, it shows that Israel does not really want a ceasefire and negotiations. No one is willing to accept the US ceasefire plan but kill the enemy leader. Israel's actions may cause Hamas to retaliate by killing the hostages. Hamas, Hezbollah... will launch guerrilla attacks, surprise, persistent on Israel.

A part of the people and opposition factions will oppose the current government of Israel. World public opinion will condemn, and Tel Aviv's allies and partners will also be concerned. However, Israel will still act because they believe in their military strength and the "backing" of the US, their number 1 ally. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declared that the US will defend Israel if attacked (in response).

The two killings dashed hopes for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and could push the Middle East into a wider conflict.”(Source: Reuters)

Fourth, the two killings could permanently freeze ceasefire talks, putting the region in an extremely dangerous position. Mr. Haniyeh was the head of the Hamas negotiating team. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh bin Abdulrahman Al Thani warned that the killing of the Hamas leader could jeopardize efforts to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

China protested and condemned the killing, saying it was “deeply concerned about the potential for further escalation of instability in the region.” The Russian Federation condemned the killing, calling it “a politically motivated murder that is completely unacceptable.”

If the world and the region do not act promptly and create an effective “brake”, the assassination, followed by retaliation from Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah… will be the trigger that ignites a regional war. The Middle East is at risk of being on the brink.

Fifth, who can “stop” the conflict? Nearly 4 months ago, the world held its breath for 2 weeks after the retaliation between Iran and Israel. Fortunately, the war did not break out, thanks to the restraint of both sides. But this time, whether they can “surpass themselves” or not is a difficult question. The insiders are the decisive factor, but it needs a large enough impact from the outside.

On the afternoon of July 31, the Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the escalating tension and danger in the Middle East. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and members of the Security Council affirmed the urgency of cooling down and deploying diplomatic efforts to prevent conflicts from escalating throughout the region.

The opposition to the escalating actions of the United Nations, other international organizations and many countries has created great pressure on all parties. But that is not enough, we need to make stronger, more concrete and practical efforts. Public opinion is right to believe that the US, the main supplier of weapons, supporting the warning system, missile defense and being ready to protect Israel politically and diplomatically, is the factor that has the greatest influence and impact on Israel's determination. The statement by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is meant to deter Iran and its allies and partners, but it also makes them feel inhibited by bias, making them distrust the US ceasefire plan and determined to fight to the end.

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The above analysis shows that the assassination of the Hamas leader was a “political assassination”, deliberately adding fuel to the fire, pushing the Middle East to the brink. The situation is very tense. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah... want to retaliate appropriately, but they also need time to prepare on all fronts. The world and the region will have to hold their breath for a week or a few weeks to see what scenario will happen.

We should not wait, but must act immediately, strongly, unitedly, and effectively. To defuse the situation, all parties must first exercise restraint; seek a temporary ceasefire, and make efforts from many directions to prevent conflicts, creating the basis for a fundamental, long-term solution.

It is necessary to avoid providing additional weapons and actions that are biased towards one side, especially the side with the military advantage. International recognition of an independent Palestinian State, coexisting peacefully with the Jewish State, is an extremely meaningful move, contributing to promoting ceasefire and dialogue.