The Vietnamese stock market had a strong week, closing the week up 20.69 points (+1.6%) to 1,326.05 points. The market's growth slowed down in the first three sessions of the week due to profit-taking pressure and mixed developments surrounding the US's imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. However, the market broke out in the last two sessions of the week thanks to positive domestic news.

Specifically, the State Bank has announced that it will stop issuing treasury bills after a long period of using this tool to regulate liquidity, a move that demonstrates a strong commitment to supporting liquidity for the system to lower market interest rates as directed by the Government. At the same time, the State Bank has also deployed additional OMO lending contracts of up to 91 days to support longer-term liquidity for the banking system.

After the State Bank 's move, interbank interest rates have dropped sharply, with overnight interest rates around 4%. This has boosted the market's growth, especially in banking and securities stocks.

The market was given more momentum in the last session of the week thanks to the news that Vinpearl filed for listing on HoSE, a very notable move after a long period of the market lacking IPOs and listings of large, typical enterprises . After this news, VIC shares hit the ceiling.

According to Pinetree Securities, the stock market has had 7 consecutive weeks of gains and ended at its highest level since May 2022 with volume tending to increase each week. Despite profit-taking pressure in some sessions, the VN-Index remained firmly above the 1,300-point mark with alternating pull from pillar stocks such as banking, retail and Vingroup at the end of the week. Even in sessions when the market corrected, there were still pillar stocks that went against the trend to anchor the index.

In addition, investors seem to have ignored the issue of US tariff policy and the global trade war to focus on the government's internal affairs and domestic issues, leading to the VN-Index being one of the highest performing indexes in Asia in the past few weeks .

With the pull of the banking group and Vingroup in the weekend session, experts from Pinetree predict that this trend will likely continue early next week, especially with unofficial information about KRX, as well as the State Bank's moves to loosen monetary policy.

The market may have some adjustments next week, but not much. With the movement of cash flow over the past 7 weeks, it is likely that cash flow will only rotate to other groups of stocks and there is no sign of withdrawal. In a positive scenario, VN-Index can completely reach the 1,350 point mark if cash flow continues to flow into pillar stocks and investors start FOMO.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, forecasts that next week, with the positive sentiment spreading, the market can maintain its upward momentum and move towards the strong resistance zone of 1,340-1,360 points. This is a strong resistance zone with a large accumulated supply in the past, so fluctuations will appear. Investors can consider realizing partial profits and lowering the leverage ratio to a safe threshold to prevent a short-term correction that may appear in this zone. For investors who "missed the wave" or have a low ratio, they should patiently wait for disbursement during the correction to have a better position and capital price.

Technically, the opinion of Thanh Cong Securities' investment consultant is that the market in this period has generally established an upward trend after overcoming the resistance of 1,300 points, which was the "barrier" of the sideways trend in the previous year; liquidity continues to increase with the destination of cash flow being in the banking and securities groups (market stocks). This is considered a positive improvement when the index has completed the sideways trend and entered the upward phase.

In the positive market scenario, VN-Index will continue to increase, most likely when cash flow has factors that continuously push into the leading group (banks) and create a "wave", the new support of the market at this time will be the 1,300 point area.

Negative scenario (low probability): The market's upward momentum ends and distribution occurs. In the context of the previous market increase with strong momentum, if distribution occurs, it will take a long time. The distribution state can be 2 peaks or a price base with large fluctuation amplitude and high liquidity.

Regardless of the scenario, the current level of risk in the market is not too high, so investors can rest assured to hold a large proportion of stocks in their portfolio . However, when the market has successfully established an uptrend, the stocks that are most profitable in terms of movement, also known as stocks that attract money, will be the groups of stocks that have formed an uptrend. These are the groups of stocks that investors should focus on with a high proportion in their portfolio.

Suggested strong stock groups: banks, securities, industrial real estate .

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-10-143-vn-index-huong-toi-vung-khang-cu-manh-1340---1360-diem-d251596.html