On August 2, the central exchange rate was listed by the State Bank at 24,242 VND/USD, a slight decrease compared to yesterday. However, in the past week, the central exchange rate has decreased by more than 20 VND, which is considered a fairly strong decrease.

At commercial banks, Vietcombank listed the USD buying price at 24,060 VND/USD and the selling price at 25,400 VND/USD, down 10 VND compared to yesterday. Eximbank traded USD at 25,050 VND/USD buying and 25,390 VND/USD selling.

Compared to about a week ago, the USD price at banks has decreased by 50-70 VND/USD.

Compared to the peak in June, the USD price at commercial banks has cooled down by more than 1.5%.

In the free market, the USD price this morning was traded at some foreign exchange points at 25,600 VND/USD for buying and 25,682 VND/USD for selling, stable in recent days. The free USD price has also fallen far from the peak of over 26,000 VND previously.

The exchange rate cooled down in the context of the weakening of the USD index in the international market. Currently, the USD index (DXY) is only 104.135 points, down nearly 2% compared to the peak in April.

In its July currency market report, MB Securities Company (MBS) said the USD cooled down in the international market after a series of positive data on the US inflation situation was released.

The market is pricing in a 90% chance that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points to 5% - 5.25% next September.

In the domestic market, the weakening of the DXY index, along with the effective intervention of the State Bank through foreign exchange sales, has reduced pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in July 2024.

MBS experts believe that the State Bank's maintenance of high interbank interest rates also helps reduce the interest rate gap between the USD and VND, thereby supporting the devaluation of the VND.

"Exchange rate pressure will cool down and fluctuate in the range of VND25,100 - 25,300/USD in the fourth quarter thanks to a positive trade surplus, increased FDI inflows and a strong recovery in tourism. The stability of the macro environment is likely to be maintained and further improvement will be the basis for stabilizing the exchange rate this year," said Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of Analysis at MBS.

From now until the end of the year, UOB Group maintains its view that the FED will cut USD interest rates twice, each time by 0.25% in September and December. If so, this will be a favorable basis for other economies to consider cutting or not raising policy interest rates; and exchange rate pressure on emerging currencies will also be reduced...

Forecasting the trend of the VND/USD exchange rate, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Director of Global Market and Economic Research, UOB Group, said that the FED's interest rate cut will cause the USD to depreciate. At that time, the VND may recover in the second half of the year along with the recovery of the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The exchange rate is forecast to be at 25,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024.