Coffee price today 8/8/2024

World coffee prices continue to increase very strongly.

Domestic coffee prices increased by VND1,000/kg, currently trading at VND125,000 - 129,000/kg, nearly double compared to the beginning of this year due to reduced supply.

Robusta coffee prices continued to increase by nearly 100 USD/ton and nearly reached the 4,500 USD mark, while Arabica coffee prices increased twice as much as Robusta. Recent developments have been assessed by industry insiders as coffee products being greatly influenced by the international stock and currency markets. In addition, the commodity market is also affected by the market's reaction to political fluctuations in some regions. With current developments, it is forecasted that the price trend will continue to be high in the near future.

On the other hand, the pressure of supply shortage is also a concern for roasters, as in the case of the Brazilian market, near-term futures prices decreased slightly but 2025 futures increased sharply. The reason is that the country's coffee growing areas are forecast to face colder weather and frost this year. The coldest places have temperatures dropping by about 5 degrees Celsius. This information has affected the psychology of investors.

In the short term, Brazil released preliminary data showing that green coffee exports in July were 44.01% higher than the same month last year, totaling 3,371,100 bags. The official July export report will be released soon. Current weather conditions in Brazil are reported to remain favorable for harvesting, with mild temperatures and scattered rains forecast across growing regions in the coming days.

However, investors in New York and London markets are still increasing bets on signs of declining output in top coffee grower Brazil, which would exacerbate the tight global supply situation.

Coffee prices today August 8, 2024: Coffee prices 'chasing each other' increased sharply, domestic prices have doubled, market trend continues to be high?

According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session on August 7, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, the delivery term for September 2024 increased by 208 USD, trading at 4,383 USD/ton. The delivery term for November 2024 increased by 161 USD, trading at 4,190 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor also increased strongly, with the September 2024 delivery period increasing by 10.25 cents, trading at 235.95 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery period increased by 8.65 cents, trading at 232.95 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Financial investors are building long positions on futures contracts, analysts say, betting prices will continue to rise due to production problems, particularly in Brazil.

As of August 5, domestic robusta coffee prices were trading around VND123,000/kg, nearly double the price at the beginning of this year due to reduced supply. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), unfavorable weather combined with the outbreak of mealybugs and red spiders will reduce the next robusta crop in Vietnam by 15% to 20%.

According to Vicofa's estimates, Vietnam's robusta coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop will be around 26.7 million bags, while the next crop in 2024-2025 will be between 21.4 and 22.7 million bags. This figure is significantly lower than Volcafé's previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) recent estimate of 27.85 million bags.

Vietnam’s coffee exports are forecast to decline in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. Coffee supply will increase again in October when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins.

According to Bloomberg , global robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam. According to the ICO, the world may face a shortage of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) of robusta coffee by 2040.