Due to a shortage of coffee supply, many Vietnamese businesses have recently had to import coffee from neighboring countries to meet domestic demand as well as for processing and export, fulfilling signed orders. The value of coffee imports in the past 7 months reached 110 million USD.
Coffee prices today, August 1, 2024
World coffee prices are falling. Robusta coffee prices have declined for the third consecutive session, with low trading volume and a relatively quiet market.
Domestic coffee prices are currently fluctuating between 123,000 and 123,600 VND/kg, remaining relatively stable compared to the same time yesterday, with only slight increases in some areas. Supply is scarce; excluding inventory carried over from the 2022/2023 crop year, Vietnam currently only has about 210,000 tons of coffee available for export in the remaining three months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from July to the end of September), until the new crop year begins harvesting in October this year.
The coffee market had anticipated the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, so there wasn't much disruption. Accordingly, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting (July 30-31), the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the eighth consecutive time, but forecasts a possible adjustment in September.
Coffee prices on both exchanges continued to fall due to improving supply from Brazil. Forecasts of rain in the coming months helped ease supply concerns, although prices remained at record highs for the time of year. However, futures prices fell more than 8% to near a three-week low as traders assessed mild winter weather conditions in Brazil.
Positive news currently preventing a price drop in the market includes: lower coffee exports from Vietnam over the weekend, which helped keep robusta prices from falling further; and reports of lower rainfall in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that the Minas Gerais region of Brazil received no rain last week, compared to the historical average for this time of week of 5.1 mm.
As of July, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 70,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 36% compared to the same period in 2023. For the first seven months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports totaled 964,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 14% compared to the same period last year. Export value reached US$3.54 billion, an increase of 31% compared to the same period last year. The high export value, despite the decrease in volume, is due to consistently high coffee prices since the beginning of the year. Estimated Vietnamese coffee production for the 2023/2024 crop year is 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 20% compared to the 2022/2023 crop year. This is the lowest production in the past four years.
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| Domestic coffee prices increased by 100-200 VND/kg on July 31st in some key purchasing areas. (Source: YouTube) |
According to World & Vietnam 's closing report for the last trading session of the month (July 31st), robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange fell slightly for the third consecutive session. The September 2024 delivery contract decreased by $5, trading at $4,261/ton. The November 2024 delivery contract decreased by $2, trading at $4,116/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell, with the September 2024 contract declining by 1.6 cents to trade at 229.20 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 contract fell by 1.45 cents to trade at 228.15 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices on July 31st increased by 100-200 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg
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According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , the leading market for Vietnamese coffee remains Europe. Of the more than 900,000 tons of coffee exported in the past seven months, Germany was the largest importer at 12.3%, followed by Italy at 9%, and Spain at 7.7%.
Meanwhile, emerging markets in Asia are experiencing high growth rates, particularly South Korea. In the first five months of 2024, Vietnam was the second largest supplier of coffee to the South Korean market, reaching 18,830 tons, a 5.7% increase in volume, and a value of US$55.8 million, a 57.4% increase in value compared to the same period last year. South Korea mainly imports unroasted coffee, accounting for 82% of its imports, with a growth rate of approximately 10% per year.
In contrast to South Korea, Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore, Myanmar, and the Philippines prefer processed coffee products and instant coffee from Vietnam. Vietnamese coffee brands like Trung Nguyen and K-Coffee are becoming increasingly familiar to consumers in the region and Asia. The average export price to these markets over the past six months ranged from US$4,107 to US$4,909 per ton.
Meanwhile, despite being the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee, Vietnam also spent $110 million importing coffee in the past seven months.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-182024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-giam-lien-tiep-khach-hang-cua-hang-viet-hien-la-ai-280842.html
