Coffee price today 1/8/2024

World coffee prices fall. Robusta coffee prices fell for the third consecutive session, trading volume was low, the market was quite quiet.

Domestic coffee prices are currently fluctuating between 123,000 - 123,600 VND/kg, basically stable compared to the same time yesterday, with some places only increasing slightly. Scarce goods, if not counting inventories from the 2022/2023 crop year, Vietnam currently only has about 210,000 tons of coffee left to export in the remaining 3 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from July to the end of September), until the new crop year begins to be harvested in October this year.

The coffee market had anticipated the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, so there was not much turmoil. Accordingly, at the end of the two-day policy meeting (July 30-31), the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the reference interest rate unchanged for the 8th consecutive time, but forecasted that it could adjust in September.

Coffee futures extended losses on Thursday as supplies from Brazil improved. Forecasts of rain in the coming months have eased supply concerns, although prices remain at record highs for the time of year. Still, futures fell more than 8 percent to near a three-week low as traders assessed mild winter weather in Brazil.

Positive news currently keeping prices from falling include: lower coffee exports from Vietnam over the weekend, which helped keep robusta prices from falling further; and reports of lower rainfall in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received no rain last week, compared with the historical average for the week at this time of year of 5.1 mm.

Updated in July, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 70,000 tons, down nearly 36% compared to the same period in 2023. In the first 7 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 964,000 tons, down nearly 14% compared to the same period last year. Export turnover reached 3.54 billion USD, up 31% over the same period last year. The high export turnover despite the decrease in volume is due to coffee prices remaining high since the beginning of the year. Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year is estimated at 1.47 million tons, down 20% compared to the 2022/2023 crop year. This is the lowest output in the past 4 years.

Domestic coffee prices on July 31 increased by 100 - 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube)

According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of the month's trading session (July 31), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased slightly for the third consecutive session, the delivery period in September 2024 decreased by 5 USD, trading at 4,261 USD/ton. The delivery period in November 2024 decreased by 2 USD, trading at 4,116 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the September 2024 delivery term down 1.6 cents, trading at 229.20 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term fell 1.45 cents, trading at 228.15 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's leading coffee consumption market is still European countries. Of the more than 900,000 tons of coffee exported in the past 7 months, Germany imported the most with 12.3%, followed by Italy with 9% and Spain with 7.7% in third place.

Meanwhile, emerging markets in Asia have achieved high growth rates, especially South Korea. In the first 5 months of 2024, Vietnam was the second largest coffee supplier to the South Korean market, reaching 18,830 tons, up 5.7% in volume and turnover reaching 55.8 million USD, up 57.4% in value compared to the same period last year. South Korea mainly imported unroasted coffee, accounting for 82% and growing at about 10% per year.

In contrast to South Korea, countries in the Southeast Asian region such as Singapore, Myanmar, the Philippines, etc. prefer processed coffee products and instant coffee from Vietnam. Vietnamese coffee brands such as Trung Nguyen, K-Coffee, etc. are becoming increasingly familiar to consumers in the region and Asia. The average export price to these markets in the past 6 months reached from 4,107 - 4,909 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, as the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee, Vietnam also spent 110 million USD to import coffee in the past 7 months.