According to data from the General Department of Customs, the European Union (EU) was Vietnam's largest coffee consumer market in the first half of 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of the export market share with a volume of 353,468 tons and a turnover of more than 1.2 billion USD. Although the export volume decreased by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, the turnover increased by 40.7%.

According to data from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), by the end of May, the EU spent 5.35 billion EUR to import 1.3 million tons of coffee of all kinds from the world market, an increase of 4.8% in volume and 8.7% in value compared to the same period last year.

The main coffee suppliers to the EU include: Brazil, Vietnam, Honduras, Uganda, Colombia, India... Of which, imports from Brazil led with 489,115 tons, up 28.6% over the same period last year. However, the average export price of Brazilian coffee to the EU decreased by 7.8% in the first 5 months of the year, down to 3,509 EUR/ton.

The EU is Vietnam's largest coffee consumer market.

Vietnam continued to rank second with a volume of 340,598 tons and a value of more than 1 billion EUR. Compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by only 1.5%, but the turnover increased by 42.4%, thanks to the export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU skyrocketing by 40.3% to an average of 3,136 EUR/ton. With this result, Vietnam's market share in the total value of EU coffee imports increased from 15.2% to 20%.

The global supply of Robusta coffee has been declining, pushing up prices in the first months of the year. Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee, is said to have benefited from this trend.

Vietnam has now surpassed many other leading producing countries such as India, Switzerland, Brazil... to become the leading supplier of processed coffee (instant coffee, coffee blends) to the EU, second only to the UK market.

Vietnam’s exports of instant coffee and coffee extracts to the EU in the first five months of the year increased by 86% compared to the same period last year, reaching 64.5 million EUR. This is double the growth rate of 40% to 1 billion EUR of the green coffee group.

However, green coffee still accounts for a large proportion of about 94% of Vietnam's total export turnover to the EU compared to 6% for instant coffee and coffee extracts.

The Import-Export Department said that in 2023, the EU's coffee imports from the world market will decrease by 10% due to the economic recession and high inflation, causing people to tighten their spending. However, when the economy recovers, the demand for coffee consumption of European people will increase again.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the EU is currently the world’s largest coffee consumer, accounting for 24-25% of global coffee consumption. EU coffee imports in the current crop year are estimated to increase by 1 million bags to 25.5 million bags.

Estimated figures from the General Statistics Office show that Vietnam's coffee exports in July reached only about 70,000 tons, down 35.7% compared to the same period last year. This is the 6th consecutive month of decline compared to the same period last year and the 8th month since the beginning of the crop year.

Accumulated to the end of the first 7 months of 2024, the export of this item is estimated at 964,000 tons, worth over 3.5 billion USD, down 13.8% in volume but up 30.9% in value over the same period in 2023 thanks to a sharp increase in export prices.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will decrease in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. Only in October, when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins, will coffee supply increase again.

In the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year according to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors.

Thus, if not counting the inventory carried over from last year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tons left to export from now until September. However, the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit in terms of price because the global Robusta coffee price will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam.