Reason and purpose

The packed schedule also includes meetings and 2+2 dialogues between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with their counterparts from Japan and the Philippines. Also in Tokyo, the US Secretary of State met with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan - members of the Quad.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their Philippine counterparts at the 2+2 dialogue in Manila, July 30. (Source: AFP)

The move was “not sudden,” as the United States has repeatedly affirmed its determination to promote a “free and open” Indo-Pacific strategy. The recent bustling activities are a highlight in the process of implementing the United States’ fundamental, long-term strategy in the region, stemming from many reasons and for many purposes.

The Asia-Pacific region is of great importance to global security. It is also a region with many potential challenges, from nuclear threats, terrorism, climate change, epidemics, to instability, confrontation, and fierce competition between major countries... In particular, the growing role and influence of China, a long-term systemic rival, is threatening the United States' position as the number one power.

The Quad Foreign Ministers’ Joint Statement on July 29 emphasized “deep concern over the situation in the East and South China Seas”; “militarization of disputed features and coercive and intimidatory moves in the East Sea”; and reaffirmed the stance of “strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force”.

Previously, at the 21st Shangri-La Dialogue (June 2024), Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin affirmed, “America is only safe if Asia is safe. That is why the US always maintains its presence in this region” and “protecting the security and prosperity of the region is a core principle in the US national security policy”. Thus, promoting the Indo-Pacific strategy, with the basic and primary goal of enhancing the political, security, military, leading and dominating role of the US in many aspects.

Notably, the US emphasized that this challenge is a common threat to countries in the region. The new point in US policy is the shift from the “one-hub-many-spoke” strategy to the “new convergence” strategy. The core is to consolidate and expand relations, enhance cooperation with allies and partners; gather them around the principle of common values, and deal with common threats and challenges. The US does not have to shoulder the burden alone but can still achieve its goals.

The urgent journey of the "Commander" of diplomacy at this time contains a message about the long-term commitment of the US; allaying the concerns of allies and partners about Washington focusing on the Ukraine and Middle East fires while neglecting and distancing itself from the region. At the same time, it aims to create a fait accompli before the presidential election. It must be affirmed that no matter who is the next White House owner, basically, the US security strategy and policy towards the region cannot be reversed. If anything, the approach and specific implementation measures will be adjusted and changed.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Quad counterparts: Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (India), Kamikawa Yoko (Japan) and Penny Wong (Australia) in Tokyo on July 29. (Source: Reuters)

Strategy implementation and status quo

The US continues to strengthen the security structure and multi-faceted cooperation institutions (politics, security, military, economy, technology) to link and connect allies and partners, complement and support each other.

First of all, Washington coordinates and improves bilateral relations and multi-faceted cooperation with strategic allies and important partners, and between allies and partners; through agreements, treaties and arrangements. The US consolidates and expands the scope of cooperation with strategic allies and traditional partners; and at the same time promotes relations with new partners such as India and ASEAN.

Second, consolidate and expand the system of more than 200 military bases, nearly 70 thousand soldiers in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines..., into fortresses on land, anchors, unsinkable warships at sea; create a foothold of deterrence, a springboard to be ready to deploy forces, and handle situations in the region.

Third, strengthen and expand multilateral strategic cooperation, promote the role of "triple" and "quadruple" cooperation and association organizations (AUKUS, Quad, Five Eyes, etc.). It is expected that in the near future, the US and its allies will be able to develop new security mechanisms and structures in the region.

These “mobile structures” combine with “fixed structures” to form triangular, quadrilateral, arc, crisscross, and multi-layered systems on land and at sea. In this way, the US and its allies maintain a strong presence, regular exercises, and many activities in the region.

But China and other major countries are not sitting still. They also unite, connect many allies and partners, gather forces, deploy their own strategies (and even go first), in the style of "soft ties", linking cooperation, economic, financial and investment interests with security, forming belts and axes in large spaces, both on land and at sea, creating a counterweight to the US and its allies.

ASEAN continues to strengthen solidarity, connectivity, and intra-bloc connectivity and expand multifaceted cooperation with other partners, especially major powers, to consolidate its central role and maintain peace and stability in the region. Mechanisms and forums within the ASEAN-centered cooperation framework such as ARF, EAS, ADMM+, etc., are increasingly attractive. This situation forces major powers to respect, want to cooperate, and seek ways to attract ASEAN and its member states.

With that situation, one side or the other has the advantage of dominating and leading in some aspects, at specific times, but overall, the correlation of power and position in the region has not yet shifted to either side.

ASEAN needs to strengthen solidarity and cooperation for common interests; promote a regional structure based on existing and under-construction mechanisms, in which ASEAN plays a leading role. (Source: Getty)

Impact and some issues raised

The presence, involvement, confrontation, and competition of structures and institutions led by major countries create both advantages and difficulties.

The first advantage is to create conditions to maintain a secure environment and space for cooperation and development for ASEAN and many countries, including Vietnam. Second, it creates opportunities for ASEAN and Vietnam to participate with other countries in solving common problems. Third, it creates opportunities for ASEAN and Vietnam, as well as other middle-income and developing countries, to enhance their role, position and prestige in the region and the world.

Fourth, ASEAN and other countries are more aware of the necessity and urgency of building strategic trust; implementing security mechanisms, controlling disagreements, resolving disputes by peaceful means, dialogue, based on international law, including UNCLOS, DOC; and building a substantive and truly effective COC.

The involvement, confrontation, and strategic competition of major countries also cause challenges and difficulties. Firstly, it makes the regional situation complicated and unpredictable; potentially destabilizing, tense confrontation, and the risk of conflict. Secondly, it creates complex and sensitive situations that force ASEAN and other countries to consider one side or the other. Thirdly, it causes internal division and differentiation, differences in the process of cooperation and association with partners; handling common issues; and weakening the central role and position of ASEAN.

In this context, ASEAN needs to strengthen solidarity and cooperation for common interests; promote a regional structure based on existing and under-construction mechanisms, in which ASEAN plays a leading role. Thereby, enhancing its attractiveness and attracting more countries to participate, especially major countries.

Vietnam needs to maintain independence, autonomy, political stability and security; promote rapid and sustainable economic development; appropriately handle situations and balance relations with major countries. Promote the implementation of the strategic orientation in the document of the 13th National Party Congress, "Continue to promote the pioneering role of foreign affairs in creating and maintaining a peaceful and stable environment, mobilizing external resources to develop the country, and enhancing the country's position and prestige".