Houthi supporters hold guns next to a picture of assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, during a march in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen ( Source : Reuters).

Over the past week, the international media has spent a lot of ink talking about two consecutive assassinations, which killed the second-in-command of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Commander Fuad Shukr, and the political leader of the Hamas movement, Mr. Ismail Haniyeh. The Jewish state has claimed responsibility for carrying out the assassination of Mr. Shukr in Beirut. However, similar to other attacks targeting Iran, the country has remained silent on the information that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was behind the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, despite accusations from the Iranian government.

But the question that has been of most interest to the world in recent days is whether these two incidents could lead to tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel. If so, when would they take place, what would their form, scale and target be?

Tension prevails

Immediately after the assassination of Mr. Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stressed that it was the country's "responsibility" to respond. New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed that Iran would "defend its territorial integrity, dignity, honor and pride, and will make...(Israel) regret this action". This is understandable, because Mr. Ismail Haniyeh, the "dear guest" was killed during the very occasion of Mr. Pezeshkian's inauguration. At the same time, it also shows the shortcomings of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in ensuring security for important people at important events.

At present, many sources believe that Iran is actively preparing to attack Israel. The Wall Street Journal (USA) quoted a number of US officials as saying that they have noticed the movement of many missile launchers and military exercises in Iran.

Regarding timing, on August 5, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran could attack within 24-48 hours. Iran has not yet carried out any military attacks as it has stated. However, it is not impossible that Tehran will act soon to fully convey a strong message to Israel and the West.

In terms of form and scale, there are opinions that Iran can deploy one of the following four options: First, it is a direct air attack on Israeli and US military targets, inside and outside its territory. Second, Tehran can launch a large-scale fire attack on a number of selected targets. Third, it can coordinate with Hezbollah to launch an “unconventional” attack. Finally, Iran can combine the first and third attack options, creating a comprehensive attack campaign.

Regarding the target, on August 5, the Defa news agency of the Iranian armed forces announced a series of potential locations in Israel. The list includes military bases, government offices, the Ministry of Defense, the Knesset in Jerusalem, and eight air bases across the country. The site also listed other important civilian locations such as airports, gas fields, and power plants.

However, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC (USA), this could also be just a “diversion”: Listing this would force Israel to spread out its forces to protect the above locations, creating conditions for Iran to concentrate fire on the real targets. According to Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich, former Commander of the Israel Air Defense Force, the northern city of Haifa could be one of them. Attacking what is already an Israel-Hezbollah hotspot, instead of Tel Aviv or another key location, would contribute to showing Iran’s support for Hezbollah and make potential Israeli responses “softer”, thereby keeping the confrontation between the two sides under control, avoiding spreading throughout the Middle East.

In addition, Iran has just warned airlines about the risk of disruption of Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) signals in its airspace. This sign is believed to be related to the activation of electronic warfare systems to prevent satellite-guided weapons of the opponent. Thus, in addition to attacking, Iran seems to be preparing for a scenario of facing the possibility of a retaliatory attack from Israel.

For his part, on August 4, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet, stressing that the country was ready for all scenarios, including “a multi-front war.” Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto had conveyed a message from Iran’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, according to which Tehran would soon launch a retaliatory attack against the Jewish State.

Many countries, including the US and UK, have warned their citizens to leave hotspots in the Middle East after the Hamas leader was assassinated on July 31.

Ready for any scenario

What about other countries? The United States, a close ally of Israel, is particularly concerned about the escalating tensions in the region. Last weekend, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he was deploying additional cruisers and destroyers with anti-ballistic missile capabilities to the Middle East. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and a squadron of fighter jets are also en route to the region.

Meanwhile, on August 5, the New York Times (USA) quoted Iranian officials as saying that Russia had begun transferring advanced air defense and radar systems to Iran, after Tehran requested them to deal with potential attacks by the Jewish State.

China said it was “extremely concerned about the possibility of increased instability in the region due to this incident.” Chinese Ambassador Fu Tong, Head of the Chinese Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Algerian Ambassador Amar Bendjama, and Russian Deputy Ambassador Dmitry Polyansky also criticized the assassination of Mr. Ismail Haniyeh and called for restraint from all sides.

In addition to the above countries, many countries and territories have called on their citizens to immediately leave Israel, Iran and Lebanon, as the conflict in the region continues to heat up, with some commercial airlines having suspended operations. Thus, it seems that all sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario: Iran attacking Israel.

On the other hand, there are some diplomatic moves to cool the situation, in the hope of preventing tit-for-tat attacks from both countries. Among them, the US efforts are the most prominent. On the one hand, on August 5, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that Washington has used diplomatic channels to urge countries to send a message to Tehran, emphasizing that a regional conflict would not benefit the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, on August 5, Israeli national television quoted a number of officials from countries in the US-led coalition warning the Jewish State not to overreact if it is attacked in retaliation.

For his part, during a meeting with representatives of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu conveyed Russian President Vladimir Putin's call on Iran to minimize casualties as much as possible, especially among civilians, if it decides to attack Israel.

Will these calls be enough to prevent tit-for-tat actions between Israel and Iran from “crossing the line” and spreading throughout the region? The answer remains open. But regardless of which scenario unfolds, the suffocating atmosphere in the Middle East will continue.