In the first half of 2024, VN-Index maintained a positive upward momentum starting from October 2023. However, the upward momentum of VN-Index could not be maintained due to pressure from rising exchange rates in July 2024 and the continuous net selling pressure from foreign investors.

The deep correction sessions in late July and early August 2024, especially in the context of the sell-off of the world stock market, caused the VN-Index to break the uptrend established since October last year. Maintaining the threshold of 1,150 - 1,160 points is considered a challenge for the VN-Index in maintaining the medium-term price increase channel in the coming period.

VN-Index has increased positively in recent sessions, but liquidity is still a factor that has not improved. The recovery in the last sessions of the week clearly shows the effort to slow down the short-term decline. In a moving trend, whether it is a decrease or an increase, it will be difficult to maintain continuously without breaks and accumulation.

Therefore, in a recent report, experts from HSC Securities Company stated that there are opportunities for both scenarios including a reversal or simply a period of accumulation and technical recovery before the downtrend returns.

In the positive scenario, HSC experts believe that the support zone of 1,200 - 1,220 points will be maintained and the resistance zone that needs to be conquered to regain a clearer positive signal will be around 1,240 points (MA20). Along with that, the index needs to gather strong enough momentum from the support of large-cap groups and the response of active demand across a wide range of stocks in the entire market.

If the market's recovery movement is maintained throughout the series of fluctuations in the upcoming derivatives expiration week, it can be seen that the market's will to recover is very strong, thereby creating a basis for short-term positions to return, experts from HSC Securities Company commented.

Experts from ACBS Securities Company predict that the VN-Index will accumulate sideways within the range of 1,150 - 1,300 points in the second half of 2024 on the basis that the Fed will start lowering interest rates from September 2024. Inflation figures (CPI, PCE) are all on a downward trend, while the job market has clearly weakened in recent days, making the risk of a US economic recession a top concern. Currently, the Fed is even expected to cut interest rates three times this year, with a total cut of more than 1%.

Domestically, the growth momentum of over 6% (from 6.2 - 6.7%) is expected to continue in the second half of the year, thanks to the impressive recovery of industrial production, construction, exports and continued strong FDI inflows. However, the growth momentum may slow down in the fourth quarter of 2024 if the US and major export markets face the risk of economic recession.

Therefore, ACBS believes that with the prospect of profits unlikely to break out in the next 1-2 quarters, a broad adjustment for mid- and small-cap stocks is appropriate. Opportunities in the second half of the year will be somewhat tilted towards the VN30 group (in which banking stocks account for a large proportion), especially in the context of the FED lowering interest rates and cash flow from foreign investors may re-enter the market.