After nearly 8 consecutive weeks of increase (equivalent to 2 months), the VN-Index showed signs of "shaking" at the 1,330 point area last week, mainly due to investors' profit-taking psychology.

However, contrary to many forecasts of many securities companies, at the beginning of the new week, VN-Index increased positively with 10 points thanks to the continued cash flow into pillar stocks, typically the banking and real estate groups. VN-Index closed the session at 1,336 points.

In the face of the positive developments of the stock market in recent times, sharing at the Workshop "Economic transformation and opportunities for the stock market", Mr. Tran Duc Anh, Director of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy, KB Securities (KBSV) affirmed that the Vietnamese stock market is receiving many growth potentials from economic prospects and macro policies.

Accordingly, Vietnam targets GDP growth of 8% in 2025, the highest level in the past decade. And to achieve this target, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to be loosened. For example, credit growth is expected to reach 16%, while the inflation target is raised to 5% (compared to 4.5% previously) to create room for management measures.

In addition, the trading trend of foreign investors is likely to no longer be as strong as in 2024 due to concerns about the US economic recession under President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The wave of investment in AI technology is also showing signs of cooling down as Big Tech stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla are being sold off heavily and the US market valuation is at a high level.

Based on the above factors, he expects that the growth in earnings per share (EPS) of VN-Index in 2025 will increase by about 15%, with the main driving force from the non-essential consumer goods group (+38%) and essential consumer goods group (+23.4%). The financial group (+13%) and industrial group (+11%) have the lowest growth rate, but still maintain a positive trend.

In the long term, VN-Index could reach 1,460 points by the end of 2025.

Investment Strategy 2025

KBSV's research suggests that the stock market in 2025 will mainly revolve around three main investment themes: Policies to support economic growth, the possibility of upgrading the market, and the impact of the Trump administration.

Emphasizing this issue, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Binh, Director of KBSV Analysis Department, said that with the upgrade story, the market often reacts before the event takes place and may decrease afterwards. Therefore, in this year's investment strategy, investors can invest from now until September 2025, when Vietnam is expected to be included in FTSE's upgrade watch list.

As for the present time, Mr. Nguyen Tuan Anh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of FinPeace, assessed that the market has experienced a strong increase, surpassing the threshold of 1,305 points. At the same time, he predicted that there will be strong fluctuations in early 2025, the possibility of a correction will appear first, then continue to increase, attracting the participation of investors.

However, to invest effectively and with the best performance, Mr. Tuan Anh gives some specific recommendations.

Referring to popular investment strategies in stocks, Mr. Tuan Anh gave an example of the habit of "test investing", which means initially using only a small amount of about 5-10% of capital, and only disbursing more if there is profit. This strategy can cause the average cost of capital to increase.

He believes that when the market adjusts to a reasonable level, the capital allocation should be the largest. Therefore, if investors cannot catch the wave in time, they should consider passing it up and looking for new opportunities instead of chasing it.

In addition, investors need to determine in advance a price zone to cut losses in case the business encounters unfavorable fluctuations, helping investors always be proactive and limit risks as much as possible.

In addition to investment strategies, at the workshop, experts shared their expectations for promising industry groups in the market this year.

Accordingly, the sectors that benefit from economic growth support policies include banking (monetary policy, growth stimulation, credit growth), public investment (public investment plan of up to VND875 trillion) and real estate (stimulus policy, unblocking capital flows, solving legal problems for real estate and retail businesses).

Benefiting from the market upgrade story includes the securities industry (expecting foreign capital to return, helping increase revenue), and FTSE "basket" stocks.

Benefiting from the policies of the Donald Trump administration including technology industry, industrial parks and Export - Textiles, seafood (competitive advantage when exporting to the US due to no direct tax).

In addition, based on the story of economic growth momentum, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Binh highly appreciated the public investment sector, with the Government's efforts to clear the legal framework. However, due to the weak financial capacity of many enterprises in this sector, investors should trade in short-term movements. As for long-term investment, the power construction group will be a suitable choice thanks to the benefits from public investment and a solid financial foundation.

Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/chien-luoc-dau-tu-nao-cho-thi-truong-chung-khoan-nam-2025-2025031718512784.htm