Vietnam's stock market has shown remarkable resilience when it successfully surpassed the "hard" resistance level of 1,300 points in the first quarter of 2025 (specifically in the session of February 24, 2025) and maintained above this level in many subsequent sessions. According to calculations, VN-Index has recorded 7 consecutive weeks of increasing points.

The VN-Index decisively overcoming this resistance level after many previous failures has helped to relieve investors' psychology in the market and the cash flow into the market is increasing. The massive cash flow into the market has pushed the prices of many stocks to increase spectacularly, many industry groups have also taken turns to shine.

HSC securities experts predict that VN-Index will reach 1,468 points thanks to expectations of 19.5% profit growth for the whole market; Vietcap predicts the milestone of 1,500 points; while MBS gives a figure in the range of 1,400-1,420 points, TPS estimates that VN-Index will fluctuate around the target of 1,470 points.

Massive cash flow into the market pushes up the prices of a series of stocks spectacularly.

A favorable domestic macroeconomic environment is an important factor supporting the stock market, the "barometer" of the economy.

This is reflected in the GDP growth target of 8% or more; then the addition of a public investment plan of up to 36 billion USD this year and a series of policy amendments to improve the business environment such as: Enterprise Law, Investment Law, Law on Investment under the public-private partnership method, Bidding Law, Management Law... Along with that is the move to reduce lending interest rates and mobilization interest rates of banks to support businesses and people.

Experts from Yuanta Vietnam Securities JSC believe that in the context of the global economy still having many fluctuations, proactive policy management will play a key role in ensuring the recovery and sustainable growth of the Vietnamese economy.

In addition, another important driving force for domestic stocks comes from the profit recovery of listed companies. VNDirect forecasts that the profits of HoSE companies will increase by 17% in 2025. In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam has set a high credit growth target of 16% in 2025, providing abundant capital for businesses and strengthening the profit prospects of credit institutions.

In addition, the realization of FTSE’s goal of upgrading to “secondary emerging market” will contribute to improving market liquidity and attracting capital flows from institutional and individual investors into the stock market, thereby boosting profits in the financial services sector. Therefore, this analysis group forecasts that market profit growth will remain positive in double digits in 2025.

Similarly, SSI Securities also expects the market to attract stronger cash flow from domestic investors due to the rapid cash flow between industry groups and low valuations.

On the other hand, foreign capital flows are expected to continue to improve in 2025 thanks to the prospect of being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell; Stepping stone policies such as implementing the KRX trading system, applying the amended Securities Law and the amended Decree 155/2020.

However, many experts recommend that the current market developments show that cash flows are circulating rapidly between industry groups. Selecting stocks is more important than paying attention to the general index developments.

In addition, the market still has potential risks from escalating and spreading trade war tensions around the world, the USD's strong increase in volatility, as well as profit-taking pressure during the business results announcement season. Accordingly, it is recommended that disbursement in the market should be based on technical analysis with clear buying points, instead of buying with FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality in stocks with high price bases.

Therefore, experts and stockbrokers recommend that investors calmly observe the performance of stocks and industry groups they follow; prioritize stocks with strong cash flow, their own stories or groups that complete patterns according to technical analysis.

In terms of industry groups, VNDirect assesses that banking and real estate will continue to be the main drivers of market profits in 2025, contributing 58.5% and 10.7% respectively to total market profits.

In the same vein, Vietcap expects banks’ asset quality to improve. In 2025, Vietcap forecasts the bad debt ratio plus the bad debt ratio handled by provisions and group 2 debt to be 3.92% (-45 basis points compared to the same period last year). Vietcap forecasts that the debt handling ratio will increase as banks continue to clean up their balance sheets.

In addition, some industry groups are expected to grow strongly thanks to favorable domestic macro factors such as real estate, electricity, steel, infrastructure construction, etc.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/be-do-nao-cho-nguong-1500-diem-cua-vn-index-161390.html