The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted on August 5 with nearly 2,000 registered voters and included a series of questions, including: "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?" The results showed that Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump by 4 percentage points in the three states (50% to 46%), a number that can be said to be not bad when considering the previous situation. In May, even before President Joe Biden's disastrous performance at the June debate with Mr. Trump, New York Times/Siena College polls in the three states showed the incumbent president tied or trailing his opponent. According to the New York Times/Siena College poll, Ms. Harris's support among registered voters in Pennsylvania has increased by 10 percentage points in the last month alone. Voters in the three battleground states also see Harris as smarter and more temperamentally suited to run the country than Trump. Among them is Les Lanser, a retiree from Michigan who typically votes Republican. He is considering supporting Harris in November, although he disagrees with some Democratic policies, saying he cannot stand Trump’s “disrespectful” and “unacceptable” behavior.

There is still much work to be done.

After Biden announced his withdrawal from the race on July 22, a political whirlwind has unfolded, leading to Harris taking up the torch. The New York Times/Siena College poll is the first quality barometer of voter sentiment after the Democratic Party “changed horses midstream.” It also shows initial positive signs for Harris’s campaign after more than three weeks of hard work, including a $50 million advertising campaign. But the New York Times/Siena College poll also shows Harris has weaknesses. Voters prefer Trump when asked who they believe will handle the economy and immigration better, issues that remain central to the presidential race. At the same time, Harris’s rise should be viewed with caution, as no one is sure how long this trend will last. According to the New York Times, candidates often gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after announcing their running mate. Ms. Harris chose Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota on August 5, as voters were responding to the New York Times/Siena College polls. For Mr. Trump, Ms. Harris’s rise sounded an alarm that he needed to find a new message and approach as soon as possible. According to NPR, the Democratic Party’s switch of candidates has confused Mr. Trump and his campaign. Because, all the time before, they focused on attacking Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party’s policies. In fact, this strategy has been successful, combined with the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania that put Mr. Trump ahead in many voter surveys. However, since Ms. Harris entered the race, Mr. Trump’s campaign has taken some time to figure out what to highlight when attacking his opponent. The New York Times/Siena College poll found that the vice president did not inspire the same feelings of uncertainty as Biden. In that context, Trump’s misleading and controversial statements about Harris’s background have cost him points in the eyes of voters. For drivers, a corner is one of the moments that determines who will pass and reach the finish line first. Like the two veteran drivers, Trump and Harris both understand this, and know that rushing to accelerate will lead to mistakes and be exploited by opponents.

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