Morning of March 18: Central exchange rate decreased by 1 VND

The State Bank this morning listed the central exchange rate at 24,793 VND, down 1 VND compared to the previous session.

This morning, the State Bank of Vietnam listed the USD buying price at 23,604 VND/USD, down 1 VND; while the USD selling price was listed at 25,982 VND/USD, down 1 VND compared to the previous session.

Meanwhile, USD buying and selling prices at all commercial banks were adjusted up with a common amplitude of 5-15 VND compared to the previous session.

Specifically, as of 9:00 a.m. this morning, the lowest USD buying price is at 25,320 VND/USD (20 VND higher), the highest buying price is at 25,350 VND/USD (10 VND higher). On the selling side, the lowest USD selling price is at 25,709 VND/USD (19 VND higher), the highest buying price is at 25,735 VND/USD (15 VND higher).

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), is currently trading at 103.545, down 0.125 points from the opening.

The greenback remained under pressure, trading near a five-month low against the euro and other major currencies in a basket, as investors worried about the economic impact of rising global trade tensions from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies.

The US dollar index has fallen about 6% from a more than two-year high of 110.17 hit in mid-January, and is struggling to escape a five-month low of 103.21 hit last Tuesday.

US retail sales data released on Monday for February showed a modest rebound after a revised 1.2% decline in January, not enough to revive confidence in the dollar amid gloomy market sentiment.

The euro held near a five-month peak, trading at $1.0909, down 0.12% and not far from its highest since Oct. 11, 2024, of $1.0947 hit last week.

The common currency’s strength comes from the prospect of a major economic stimulus package in Germany, which is expected to be considered by parliament on Tuesday. Germany’s Constitutional Court on Monday rejected a challenge from opposition parties against the future coalition government’s plans, clearing the way for a plan that includes a 500 billion euro ($544 billion) infrastructure fund and a reform of debt rules aimed at bolstering defense and economic growth. The move further solidifies the euro’s position against the dollar.

Major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings this week.

The Fed will also release new economic forecasts, providing the clearest view yet of how it assesses the impact of Mr Trump's policies.

“The Fed could be dovish,” Citi strategists said. “If growth and employment weaken while inflation rises, the Fed will prioritize protecting growth.”

The market is currently pricing in about 60 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, equivalent to more than two cuts.

In Asia, the Japanese yen fell 0.22% to 149.54 yen per dollar, down from a peak of 146.545 yen per dollar last Tuesday - its strongest since Oct. 4.

The BoJ begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday, where it is expected to discuss the risks to the Japanese economy from the US-led trade war - a key factor in determining the timing of the next interest rate hike. However, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at this week's meeting.

The pound traded at $1.2976, down 0.12%, slightly below Monday's peak of $1.2999 - its highest since Nov. 7, 2024.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said it remained cautious about the prospect of further policy easing, after cutting interest rates for the first time in more than four years last month.

The Australian dollar, which tends to be sensitive to the currency of its top trading partner China, hit its highest in less than a month on strong Chinese retail sales data released on Monday and optimism about Chinese officials' "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption. It was trading at $0.6379, down 0.08%, near its highest in nearly a month.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.07% to $0.5816, after rising to its highest since Dec. 10, 2024 at $0.58265 in the previous session.