The latest report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow 5.8% this year, leading the Southeast Asian region.

To achieve the target figure of 6%, Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - ADB Country Director in Vietnam - assessed that GDP in the fourth quarter will need to be over 10%, this is a very high expectation.

"There are many risks we face from the outside, from instability due to geopolitical conflicts, rising inflation, tightening monetary policies in countries... which are beyond control and difficult to predict. I think that even if the growth rate does not reach 5.8% or 6%, only at 5.6 - 5.7%, it is still a good, positive foundation for higher growth in the following years," said Mr. Chakraborty.

ADB leaders highly appreciated the Government’s proactive policy responses in recent times to balance macroeconomic stability and support socio-economic development, and promote public investment. Macroeconomic policies include fiscal and monetary measures. So far, the Government has been on the right track and timely.

Comments on economic drivers in the last quarter of the year, Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty suggested that we should focus on promoting domestic consumption. Because this factor is under control and depends a lot on the Government's policies. At the same time, we also need strong fiscal solutions, including increasing the speed of public investment disbursement. Although public investment disbursement currently reaches 51%, which is quite high, it is still not enough compared to the set target.

In addition, inflation and exchange rates are well controlled. The government therefore has a large room to adjust fiscal and monetary policies to ensure an effective money supply into the economy.

"The current infrastructure 'gaps' and deficits are still large, ODA funds are still limited... Therefore, Vietnam needs to mobilize more resources from the private sector for infrastructure, especially infrastructure that can withstand climate change. At the same time, it is necessary to reform policies to encourage the private economy" - Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty assessed.

For medium and long-term sustainability, greening the economy with a strong focus on climate change adaptation plays an important role. Vietnam needs to ensure the value of investments and focus on enhancing climate change resilience and greening the economy. This may not bring immediate benefits in the next 3 months but will be beneficial in the medium and long term to achieve high and sustainable growth.