The Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk (pictured) has a great chance of forming a new government in Poland. (Source: Getty Images)

Before polling stations in Poland closed at 9 p.m. on October 15, observers said this was one of the most important elections since the Third Polish Republic was founded in 1989.

The change at the government level could bring significant adjustments on a range of issues of particular importance to Warsaw and the European Union (EU), of which the Eastern European country is a member. These include domestic issues such as constitutional order, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, economic development… to international stories such as the stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU, or relations with Ukraine and Germany…

For that reason, the rate of people going to vote this time reached 74.16%, a record high in the history of the Third Polish Republic and far surpassing the 63% mark in 1989.

Notably, the results saw a strong rise of the opposition. As of the evening of October 16 (local time), the Civic Alliance party led by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk was in the lead. This force currently won 30.4% of the votes and could occupy 248/460 seats in the National Assembly.

Speaking after the election, Mr. Tusk stated: “I have been in politics for many years and have always tried to become the leader. However, I have never felt so happy to come second. Poland has won. Democracy has won…”.

Voters' ballots also expressed their stance and attitude towards the current government. The Law and Justice Party (PiS) received 35.73% of the votes, down sharply from 44% (2019) and is expected to hold 200/460 seats in the National Assembly. The Third Way (TD) progressive coalition received 14.42% of the votes, the New Left Party 8.55%. The League, PiS's coalition partner, only surpassed the 7.15% threshold.

Euronews said that this result reflects voters' attitudes towards the high inflation rate of the economy, cronyism, tough stance on some social issues as well as troubles with the EU in general and some allied countries in particular.

Despite this, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki still declared the party victorious: “We have won. PiS is the winner of the 2023 parliamentary elections.” However, the party’s leader, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, also admitted that if the polls were correct, PiS was in a difficult position.

Despite winning the most votes, PiS's coalition with the far-right Federal Party only has 212 seats, not enough to form a government. In that context, the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk is likely to win the right to form a government before PiS and the Federal Party have a chance.

What changes will the Civic Coalition's coming to power bring in Poland?

First of all, on the domestic front, voters expect that the new administration will make adjustments related to the judicial system, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, and environmental protection. The story of immigration, retirement age, and a number of other issues, which were put to referendum at the same time as the election, are also topics of interest.

On the regional front, in contrast to Morawiecki’s EU skepticism, Donald Tusk has shown confidence in the organization, where he played an important role. At the same time, the politician supports Warsaw’s continued deep cooperation with Europe for the benefit of both sides.

In addition, relations between Poland and Ukraine could cool down as the far-right Federation Party, which criticized Kiev for “not appreciating” Warsaw’s help, is no longer part of the ruling coalition.

In that context, can the Civic Coalition “change the game” in Poland as expected, or does PiS have a chance to continue holding on to its seats?