Neither Ukraine nor Russia has the military resources to launch major attacks against each other, the Pentagon's intelligence agency said in its latest assessments.

Assessments by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded that Ukraine still does not have enough ammunition to match Russia’s ability to fire about 10,000 artillery shells a day, even after the US Congress “unblocked” a new flow of military aid to Kiev in April. Ukrainian forces remain capable of conducting defensive operations but will not be able to mount a large-scale counteroffensive for at least six months.

Russia, on the other hand, has adopted a strategy of exhausting Ukraine and will be able to maintain the “buffer zone” its military has established – but without the strength “to threaten to advance deeper into Ukrainian-controlled territory, such as the city of Kharkiv,” the DIA said in a note.

The conclusions of US defense intelligence were included in the latest quarterly report on Washington's aid to Kiev issued by the Pentagon's inspector general, Robert Storch, on August 15.

The conclusions echo public statements by senior US officials including General Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is nearing a stalemate.

Storch’s report covers the three-month period ending June 30, after the U.S. Congress approved the latest $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Since then, Ukraine has launched a surprise attack on Russia’s Kursk region and received its first allied F-16 fighter jets.

The report highlights Ukraine’s successful use of the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike Russian ammunition storage areas and helicopters parked at two locations inside Ukraine.

A Ukrainian ATACMS missile attack on Sevastopol on May 18 sank a corvette. Ukraine also used the weapon to attack Russian air defense systems in Crimea, destroying some of the most advanced S-400 missile systems, the report noted.

The ATACMS attacks forced Russian forces to bolster Crimea's air defenses with their most advanced system, the S-500, to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge, for example, according to the DIA.

“The S-500 system has yet to be demonstrated fully operational in Ukraine, which the DIA sees as a sign that Russia is struggling to provide adequate air defense capabilities to Crimea,” according to the US intelligence report.

Minh Duc (According to Bloomberg)