VND will gradually strengthen in the second half of 2024

According to statistics from UOB Bank, the exchange rates of major currencies in the world have fluctuated a lot in the past 6 months. In particular, the Japanese Yen lost 14% of its value, the Korean Won decreased by 7%. The currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines also decreased by about 6% compared to the USD.

It can be seen that the pressure from the USD continues to be a difficult problem for countries. However, UOB still forecasts that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will have 2 cuts in USD interest rates in September and December 2024. The rate of cut is about 0.25% in each of these cuts.

Regarding the outlook for the VND exchange rate, UOB experts believe that the VND will recover in the second half of 2024 along with the recovery of the CNY. This condition occurs in the context of the USD weakening when the Fed cuts interest rates.

In the above context, UOB advises import-export businesses to have a reasonable and balanced plan in holding foreign currency.

In addition, OUB also believes that the recent weakening of the VND and inflation will make the SBV cautious in deciding to change interest rates. In addition, growth may slow down in the second half of 2024, leading UOB to believe that the SBV will maintain the refinancing rate at 4.5%.

Regarding mobilization interest rates, from the second quarter of 2024, the economic situation has clearly improved. Therefore, the interest rate level will be able to find a new equilibrium point. In the last 6 months of the year, the VND interest rate level may increase slightly by 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points.