Strong export growth

According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first quarter of 2025, the export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery products reached 15.72 billion USD, an increase of 13.1% over the same period in 2024. In March 2025 alone, the export value reached 6.14 billion USD, an increase of 16.9% over March 2024. All product groups recorded growth, specifically: agricultural products reached 8.53 billion USD (up 12.2%), forestry products 4.21 billion USD (up 11.2%), aquatic products 2.29 billion USD (up 18.1%), livestock products 131.3 million USD (up 18.5%) and production inputs 549.5 million USD (up 19.6%).

Key commodities continued to be the main growth drivers. Wood and wood products reached 3.95 billion USD, up 11.6%; coffee reached 2.88 billion USD, up 49.5%; rubber reached 765.8 million USD, up 26.1% and shrimp reached 943 million USD, up 37.8%. However, some commodities decreased, such as rice reached 1.14 billion USD, down 19.7% and vegetables and fruits also decreased 11.3%, reaching 1.14 billion USD.

The average export price of many agricultural products in the first quarter of 2025 grew impressively by double digits. Coffee prices reached 5,656 USD/ton, up 71.7%, thanks to the strong increase in demand for high-quality coffee. Pepper prices reached 6,845 USD/ton, up 64.9%, and rubber prices reached 1,933 USD/ton, up 31.9%. Cashew nuts also recorded an increase of 29.1%, reaching 6,929 USD/ton. However, rice export prices fell sharply by 20.1%, to only 522 USD/ton, due to increased competition from countries such as India and reduced demand in some markets. Tea prices also decreased slightly by 0.2%, reaching 1,622 USD/ton.

The increase in prices of commodities such as coffee, pepper and rubber has offset the decline in rice and vegetables, helping to maintain the growth momentum of export turnover. However, price fluctuations remain a major challenge, especially as international markets increasingly demand high quality and food safety standards.

In terms of markets, Asia continues to be Vietnam's largest export region, accounting for 42% of the market share, with a value of 6.61 billion USD, up 2%. America and Europe account for 22.5% and 16.6%, respectively, with impressive growth of 15.7% and 37.8%. Notably, exports to Africa increased sharply by 105%, reaching 496 million USD, while Oceania increased slightly by 0.8%, reaching 197 million USD.

The US, China and Japan were the three largest export markets. The US led with a market share of 20.2%, up 13.5% in value. China accounted for 17.3%, up 3.6%, and Japan accounted for 7.7%, up 26%. Products such as coffee, seafood and wood were particularly popular in these markets.

Despite impressive growth, the agricultural sector still faces many challenges. Price fluctuations, such as the decline in rice and vegetable prices, reflect increasingly fierce competition in the international market. In addition, major markets such as the US, EU and Japan are imposing strict requirements on quality, food safety and traceability, while Vietnam still struggles to fully meet these standards.

Facing the upcoming tariff challenges from the United States, according to Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development, in recent years, Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery (AFF) exports to the United States have reached over 13 billion USD (trade surplus of over 10 billion USD) and imports from the United States are about over 3 billion USD/year. In 2024 alone, exports will reach 14.31 billion USD, an increase of 25% compared to 2023 and imports will reach 3.44 billion USD.

In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam's exports to the United States will reach 3.21 billion USD, an increase of 14.9% over the same period in 2024, and imports from the United States will reach 914 million USD, an increase of 7.1% over the same period in 2024. In particular, the main products over many years are still wood, pepper, cashew, seafood, coffee and vegetables.

According to Mr. Phong, the imposition of a basic tax of 10% on all imported goods into the United States will have a direct impact on the overall trade balance between Vietnam and the United States in general, greatly impact Vietnam's agricultural exports and affect the growth rate of the agricultural sector in 2025.

The US reciprocal tax policy is considered by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment as an urgent challenge. Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy emphasized that the challenge is also an opportunity to restructure production, industries, and markets for agricultural products.

Minister Do Duc Duy pointed out the task of developing a response plan, including reviewing technical documents, building a market database, and promoting negotiations with international partners. The Minister also requested to resolve the backlog of cases on market opening and export licensing for businesses, while focusing on exploiting potential markets such as Africa and Halal countries.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has set a target of 4% growth for the entire sector in 2025, with agricultural, forestry and fishery export turnover reaching 65 billion USD, possibly even reaching 70 billion USD. To achieve this goal, the Ministry will focus on solutions such as improving product quality, enhancing digital transformation in management and traceability, as well as promoting trade in potential markets.

Do Huong

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/thach-thuc-la-co-hoi-tai-co-cau-san-xuat-nganh-hang-thi-truong-nganh-nong-nghiep-102250414172450759.htm