In a recent analysis, Mirae Asset Securities Company said that the capitalization scale of VN-Index is currently quite similar to several countries with low weighting in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index, typically the market capitalization scale of Chile and Qatar. It is estimated that Vietnam's weight in the basket will be around 0.7% when officially added.  

Provisionally calculating 6 ETF funds using FTSE Emerging markets Index as reference, with an allocation ratio of 0.7%, Vietnam can receive an estimated hypothetical investment of about 622 million USD (equivalent to nearly 15,878 billion VND).

Typically, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF has a size of nearly 83 billion USD. With an allocation ratio of 0.7%, Vietnam can be disbursed at about 581 million USD.

Mirae Asset believes that foreign capital flows into Vietnam not only come from funds using the FTSE Emerging Markets Index as a reference, but also attract other foreign capital flows when the market is upgraded.

Cash flow is expected to flow into Vietnam's stock market from ETF funds after upgrading.

This securities company also informed that most markets 1-2 years before the official upgrade, the stock market showed signs of recovery. Specifically: Qatar increased by more than 45% from (September 2013 - September 2014), Saudi Arabia increased by more than 23% (March 2017 - March 2018), Romania increased by more than 18% from (September 2018 - September 2019).

Therefore, if Vietnam is forecasted to be officially upgraded from September 2025, then 2025 is a suitable year for investors to accumulate stocks that benefit from the upgrade story.  

In addition, in the long term after the official disbursement time (6 months to 1 year from the official time of upgrade information), market capitalization in most markets that have been upgraded in the past have shown good growth up to the present time.

Looking for a group of stocks that will benefit from the upgrade, Mirae Asset assessed that if the upgrade is successful, the stocks need to meet the new requirements of FTSE Secondary Emerging to be included in the selection list such as capitalization, liquidity, foreign investor ownership ratio, etc. In addition, the securities industry group is also a group that will directly benefit if the market is successfully upgraded. Along with attracting foreign capital, market liquidity is expected to increase, investment sentiment is expected to improve, leading to an increase in outstanding margin loans, expanding profit margins, creating growth expectations for the securities industry group.

The Vietnamese stock market is in the final stages of upgrading. It is expected that in the second quarter of 2025, the KRX system will officially come into operation, thereby shortening the settlement time and solving the Payment Cycle criteria.

In addition to waiting for the KRX to operate, Mirae Asset also expects VSDC to accelerate the establishment of a subsidiary (performing the role of a central clearing partner CCP) in the second quarter of 2025. From there, the organization will be directly responsible for completing payment procedures between VSDC and related members (securities companies, commercial banks certified to be qualified to provide clearing and settlement services for securities transactions).  

FTSE Russell recognizes the efforts and encourages the publication of more detailed operating rules, including the completion of the roles and responsibilities of member organizations. At the same time, upgrade the infrastructure and transaction processing system through the implementation of the KRX system. At the same time, evaluate the effectiveness of the system and fix any errors that occur during transactions. Mirae Asset expects that by September 2025, Vietnam will be decided to upgrade from Frontier to Secondary Emerging, and expects to disburse from March 2026.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/don-co-hoi-dau-tu-thoi-chung-khoan-chay-nuoc-rut-nang-hang-d258332.html