New trends

At the workshop "Vietnam 2045 Report: Global Economic Trends and Policy Implications for Vietnam" held on May 21, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Truong, Deputy Director of the Institute for Development Strategy - Ministry of Planning and Investment (the unit assigned to be the focal point for developing the Report) said that the Vietnam 2045 Report is in the process of being developed, will analyze and update new trends and developments in the international and domestic context, assess Vietnam's achievements and limitations in the process of socio-economic development, thereby proposing solutions to help Vietnam perfect its economic institutions, effectively mobilize resources for infrastructure development, improve the quality of human resources, implement green transformation, digital transformation, develop rapidly, sustainably, inclusively, strengthen international integration, towards the goal of becoming a developed, high-income country by 2045.

Vietnam is still essentially a processing economy.

At the workshop, Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the International Department, Institute of Development Strategy, made comments on global trends in the period 2025-2030 and prospects to 2045 related to major groups of issues such as: Geopolitical fluctuations; technology development trends; trade and investment trends; demographic trends; new economic models; energy transition trends.

In particular, the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution accelerates the trend of forming a multipolar world. The speed of technological development increases rapidly due to large investments in many fields and the time for development, deployment and completion is shortened. "Technological advances will shape society, economy and even the power of economies, as well as create breakthroughs that support the growth of the global economy," according to Dr. Tran Toan Thang.

Along with that, although world trade growth may slow down in the short term, there will still be new growth drivers in the medium term. It is forecasted that by 2050, global trade will continue to be dominated by four regions in the world: Europe, North America, China and Asia-Pacific (currently accounting for 78% of global imports and GDP). Trade growth for green goods (environmentally friendly goods) is forecast to increase in the coming decades. Notably, the trend of sustainable FDI investment in renewable energy has increased in recent years, now surpassing new investment in the fossil fuel sector.

Institutions and internal strength are decisive factors.

Regarding the implications for Vietnam, experts say that with its important geostrategic position, if these trends are well utilized, Vietnam will make a breakthrough and achieve its set development goals.

Taking advantage of positive opportunities, limiting external risks; Building and developing institutions suitable to the new situation; Defining the role of the State; Legalizing policies and perfecting the legal system; Creating a foundation to promote the private sector... are among the recommendations that experts are expected to make in the upcoming Vietnam 2045 Report.

Ms. Pham Chi Lan, an economist who previously participated in part of the development of the Vietnam 2035 Report, said: “If I remember correctly, in the review three years after the implementation of the Vietnam 2035 Report, most of the 184 specific policy recommendations were included in documents and resolutions, but the actual implementation rate was quite low. Therefore, when the World Bank conducted Vietnam's annual report afterwards, it emphasized the implementation of policies and regulations rather than proposing new regulations.”

In addition, this expert said that observations in recent years through the "Business Law Flow" report and the PCI report show that the system of regulations and the implementation of regulations seem to have more and more problems. "That is what I am really concerned about and shows that in the current context, we really need to pay attention to building and establishing an institutional system that truly creates sustainable development. The institution itself must be sustainable, stable and predictable to be able to help society, people and businesses develop," said Ms. Lan.

According to Ms. Pham Chi Lan, when talking about taking advantage of external resources and foreign technology sources for development, it is impossible not to mention internal resources. “When there is no real internal resources, it is impossible to attract foreign investment and make good use of foreign investment. Note that Vietnam is still basically a processing economy. So I think that in the upcoming assessments, in order to make new recommendations, we need to take a very serious look at the issue of internal resources,” this expert warned.