Prioritize the development of social and middle-class housing

To overcome the imbalance in the real estate market, Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) said that the development of social and mid-range housing must become a top priority. Areas such as Hoc Mon, Binh Tan and Cu Chi with large land funds and reasonable land prices are ideal choices for implementing low-cost housing projects. In particular, the program to develop 1 million social housing units by 2030 needs to be strongly promoted. Accordingly, the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee needs to introduce specific incentive policies such as exemption and reduction of land rent, support for low-interest loans and simplify legal procedures to encourage businesses to participate.

In addition, the fact that Ho Chi Minh City will only have 1,611 high-end houses launched on the market in 2024, with an average price of up to VND9.39 billion/house, shows a serious imbalance in the product structure. Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Construction, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City have increased by an average of 15 - 20% per year in the period 2015 - 2023. With the adjusted land price list in 2024, it is forecasted that housing prices may increase by another 15 - 20% in 2025 if there are no effective control measures.

"To 'stabilize' prices, increasing the supply of mid-range and affordable housing should be a long-term solution. Currently, areas such as Binh Chanh and Nha Be, where infrastructure is being improved thanks to major projects such as Ring Road 3 and the Ho Chi Minh City - Moc Bai Expressway, have the potential to develop affordable housing projects," Mr. Le Hoang Chau suggested.

In addition, according to Mr. Le Hoang Chau, monitoring primary selling prices from investors is necessary to avoid the situation where housing prices are pushed up too high right from the investment stage; at the same time, it is necessary to build a transparent pricing mechanism, ensuring that the selling price reflects the true value of the product and the affordability of the people.

In addition, transport infrastructure plays an important role in promoting the development of the real estate market. Currently, Ho Chi Minh City is implementing many key projects, including: Ring Road 3 connecting suburban areas and reducing the load on the city center; Ho Chi Minh City - Moc Bai Expressway connecting with Tay Ninh and Cambodia, opening up development opportunities for Binh Chanh and Long An; Metro Line 1 officially put into operation from December 22 will be a great driving force for development in Thu Duc City and neighboring areas...

These projects not only create added value for neighboring areas but also help balance housing supply and demand between the inner city and the suburbs. In particular, areas such as Thu Duc City, Binh Chanh and Nha Be promise to become new development centers thanks to their infrastructure advantages and large land funds.

Opportunities and potential for market development in 2025

In the context of limited budget capital, the public-private partnership (PPP) model is considered an important solution to solve the problem of housing supply and transport infrastructure for Ho Chi Minh City. Currently, with more than 100 real estate projects facing legal bottlenecks, mobilizing resources from the private sector through PPP will reduce pressure on the state budget and create conditions for projects to be implemented more quickly.

In particular, key projects such as Metro Line 1, Ring Road 3 and Ho Chi Minh City - Moc Bai Expressway can all be accelerated with the participation of businesses. According to HoREA's report, when these projects are completed, not only Thu Duc City but also satellite cities such as Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Long An will benefit greatly. This helps create new economic centers, reducing population and housing pressure for the inner city of Ho Chi Minh City.

In addition, areas such as Binh Chanh and Nha Be, which are benefiting from infrastructure expansion, will become new bright spots. Binh Chanh, with more than 31 commercial housing projects under construction in 2024 and a large land fund, is an ideal place to develop affordable housing projects, contributing to stabilizing housing prices in the inner city.

Developing projects under the PPP model not only helps reduce the budget burden but also quickly meets the actual housing needs of people, especially the middle and low-income groups. Real estate products from PPP projects can be priced more reasonably thanks to tax exemptions, interest rate support and other preferential mechanisms from the government.

However, the biggest challenge remains in developing transparent and consistent policies to ensure the interests of both the government and participating businesses. Therefore, HoREA predicts that the Ho Chi Minh City real estate market in 2025 will not only face challenges but also promise great opportunities if there is close coordination between the government, businesses and the community. Accordingly, Ho Chi Minh City can completely overcome the difficult period and become one of the leading real estate markets in the region, meeting the actual housing needs and promoting sustainable socio-economic development.