The figures of 5.8% from the WB (higher than many countries in East Asia-Pacific) and 6.6% from the ADB are not only forecasts, but also recognition of Vietnam's efforts in macroeconomic stability, policy reform and promoting economic integration in recent times.

Passenger car production at Ford Hai Duong auto assembly plant. (Photo: Tin Tuc Newspaper)

Growth drivers come from exports, FDI and real estate

The World Bank stressed that the current growth momentum is mainly driven by a strong recovery in exports, rising to 15.5% in 2024, along with signs of improvement in the real estate market thanks to low interest rates and increased supply. These factors have led to a marked improvement in the labor market, with manufacturing employment recovering significantly and real incomes increasing by nearly 5%, all contributing to a clear trend of poverty reduction, with the international poverty rate expected to be only 3.6% by 2025.

However, the economy has yet to fully capitalize on the spillover effect. The savings rate among the population remains high at 37.2%. Agriculture, which is the mainstay of income for the poorest group of the population, is growing slowly, preventing domestic consumption from recovering adequately.

External risks from geopolitical instability, trade conflicts to new US tariffs continue to be potential factors that could affect economic recovery. Both the World Bank and ADB have warned about Vietnam’s dependence on the global supply chain, especially when the US and China, the two largest trading partners, are showing signs of slowing growth.

In this context, ADB emphasized the importance of accelerating institutional reforms and effectively utilizing free trade agreements (FTAs) to enhance national resilience and competitiveness. ADB experts also noted that although FDI investors tend to be cautious in the face of uncertainty, they often plan for the long term. Therefore, Vietnam needs to continue improving its investment environment to retain and attract quality capital flows.

Prospects for effective trade negotiations

While continuing to push forward with domestic reforms, Vietnam is proactively pushing forward with trade negotiations with the US to find a solution to tariffs. According to international sources (Reuters, The Straits Times), on April 23, Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson L. Greer had a phone call on “bilateral economic and trade issues”.

USTR’s ustr.gov website posted a statement confirming that the two sides had a productive online exchange. USTR said Mr. Greer discussed the next steps between USTR and the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade, following President Donald Trump’s phone call with General Secretary To Lam on April 4. Both sides agreed on the importance of making rapid progress toward reciprocal and balanced trade between the United States and Vietnam.

Vietnam has shown goodwill by increasing imports of goods from the US. The Indian website regtechtimes.com predicts that although no final decision has been made, the talks show that both sides are willing to discuss the issues. The outcome will depend on whether the two countries can find a way to protect each other’s interests while maintaining a strong trade relationship.

Not only stopping at macro-economic reforms, Vietnam is also demonstrating a long-term vision with the plan to build an international financial center in Ho Chi Minh City, a great ambition to raise the country's position on the global financial map. With a rapidly developing digital economy, a strategic location in Southeast Asia, deep integration through FTAs ​​and cooperation with financial centers such as Luxembourg, Vietnam is creating an attractive premise for international investors.

According to b-company.jp (Japan), for this ambition to “take off”, Vietnam needs to solve some fundamental problems related to barriers related to capital flows, high-quality human resources, foreign ownership and currency conversion. Physical and digital infrastructure also needs to be upgraded strongly. b-company.jp believes that support programs from foreign partners are opening a feasible path.

According to Tin Tuc Newspaper
https://baotintuc.vn/phan-tichnhan-dinh/ky-vong-tang-truong-ben-vung-giua-ap-luc-hoi-nhap-va-cai-cach-20250430194605789.htm

Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/ky-vong-tang-truong-ben-vung-giua-ap-luc-hoi-nhap-va-cai-cach-213139.html