Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vietnamese Ambassador to the US for the 2014-2018 term, shared at the talk show about the 2024 US Presidential election of The World and Vietnam Newspaper.

Ahead of the 2024 US general election, Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vietnamese Ambassador to the US for the 2014-2018 term, shared with The World and Vietnam Newspaper the notable highlights of this year's US election and forecasts about Vietnam-US relations when there is a new President.

Dear Ambassador, could you please tell us the notable highlights of this year's US presidential election?

It can be seen that this year's US presidential election is very different and special.

First, this election has many twists and turns. Among them are Mr. Trump's return to the race; the Democratic Party having to replace people "midstream" when Ms. Kamala Harris replaced Mr. Joe Biden last July; Mr. Trump being assassinated twice; or the story of the US having to deal with two recent major hurricanes that caused a lot of damage and the relief efforts could also affect the election.

Second, America is very different now: a divided America, an America that has survived the pandemic, has controlled inflation but still has many difficulties at home and the people's perception of economic difficulties is still very high. In addition, America is also having to deal with many crises happening around the world, including the Middle East and Ukraine.

Third, at this point, with only a few days left, the race to the White House is still tight, with no clear winner or loser. As a result, the fierce competition is concentrated in the battleground states. It can be seen that this is an election that will certainly be close until the last minute.

Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh, what is your prediction about the final election results?

As I said, this election is very close, meaning that the difference in support is not too large. The polls are all within the margin of error and the actual result could change at any time. That means this election will be dramatic until the last minute, meaning that it will still be difficult to predict the result until November 5th.

With the popular vote, based on current polls and my own predictions, I think Kamala Harris could win more. However, with the electoral vote, it will be very close to determine the winner.

Attention is now focused on the 7 "battleground" states and the race in these states is still very fierce. The competition in Pennsylvania is especially "hot" because it has 19 electoral votes - the most of the 7 "battleground" states, so both candidates are focusing on this area. However, each candidate has strengths and weaknesses in this area.

The history of the US elections in 2016 and 2020 shows that sometimes just a few tens of thousands of votes are enough to win an entire state along with its electoral votes.

Notably, although many recent polls have shown that Kamala Harris has a slight advantage, it is only by 1-2 percentage points and within the margin of error. It seems that the "excitement" for Kamala Harris has slowed down.

Meanwhile, Mr. Donald Trump has many enthusiastic voters, but he has not expanded his circle of support further, because his doctrine is quite far-right and it is difficult to strengthen his core support base.

Returning to the battleground states, there are two notable points that can affect the outcome here. One is the actual ability of voters to vote and the composition of these voters. Because not everyone who registers to vote, not everyone who polls say they support a party, will eventually vote for that party. Many times, they say they support party A in the polls but end up voting for party B. This is a lesson that has happened many times in US elections.

Second , Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden in July, but in reality, she actually entered the race in August. Therefore, the Vice President only has 3 months until the election to consolidate her coalition. Therefore, I am concerned about whether this coalition will be enthusiastic enough, enthusiastic enough to actually go to the polls.

Regarding the story of the dispute in the "battleground" states, I personally think it will be very close, but the biggest concern is probably on Kamala Harris's side.

Mr. Trump and Ms. Hariss are chasing very closely, especially in 7 "battleground" states. (Source: Getty).

According to the Ambassador, what factors could affect this last-minute stage and the final result of this year's race to the White House?

In the history of US elections, people often talk about "October surprises". An "October surprise" is an event that occurs intentionally or accidentally in the month before the election, which can change the course and outcome of the race because there is not enough time to come up with solutions to deal with it.

This year’s US presidential election has seen many major changes, such as the Democratic Party’s candidate change, the assassination attempts on Mr. Trump, and other incidents. After all these changes, any other incident at this last minute will not reverse the current trends of voter support.

As I said above, a few tens of thousands of votes can decide the success or failure of a candidate in a state, especially a "battleground" state. So what can those few tens of thousands of votes affect?

Anything that happens can affect a segment of the population, a segment of the electorate to vote. For example, in the Middle East, if the conflict escalates, the humanitarian disaster increases, then perhaps the segment of Arab and Palestinian voters, especially in the battleground state of Michigan, can reverse their decision or even abstain from voting, which can make a difference in the end. Therefore, many factors can affect the actual voter turnout.

At the same time, the composition of the actual voting population is also very important. For example, if a voter is a Democrat but not interested in the candidate of the party, supporting but not voting will still cause the candidate of the party to lose votes, or the same for the Republican Party.

Therefore, the actual voter turnout rate and voter composition will be decisive for the 7 "battleground" states in particular and for this election in general.

Mr. Donald Trump visited Vietnam in November 2017. (Source: VNA)

Over the past years, Vietnam and the US have maintained a positive, stable and substantial development momentum. The two countries upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership last year. What we are concerned about now is how the new US President will impact bilateral relations, Ambassador?

We need to imagine different scenarios for this election. Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins, the foreign policy "color" will be different, but there are still some common points.

First, America is becoming more inward-looking and pragmatic. Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump comes to power, both are taking into account the interests of America more, although their approaches may be different.

Second, I personally believe that even if one of the two candidates wins, no party can hold all three branches of power: the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Power will be divided, leading to the President having difficulty having his own doctrines and being completely expressed in the direction of the Democratic or Republican, but there will have to be coordination and compromise between the two parties. In the current polarized context, it is very difficult to pass major decisions according to a certain party.

Third, if Kamala Harris wins, many forecasts suggest that she will follow Joe Biden’s policy direction. However, Harris is not Biden. She has a side that is in line with the general direction of the Democratic Party, but on the other hand, she leans to the left. Therefore, how she will balance the general priorities of the Democratic Party and the left is something we must also pay attention to, especially in relations with Vietnam.

But if the winner is Mr. Trump, the next term will not be the same as the Trump 1.0 administration. After 8 years, the international situation is different, Mr. Trump's conflict with the Democrats is different, and the lessons learned in his first term will make him have a different approach.

Therefore, Vietnam-US relations after the 2024 US election need to be placed in the overall picture of the United States.

Vice President Vo Thi Anh Xuan received US Vice President Kamala Harris in August 2021. (Photo: Nguyen Hong)

However, whether Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump takes office, I think that overall the relationship between the two countries has three favorable points to continue to develop positively.

Firstly, the development of Vietnam-US relations benefits both countries. The US has interests in promoting relations with Vietnam in terms of economy, trade and geostrategy in the Indo-Pacific region, and so does Vietnam. Therefore, the development of Vietnam-US relations has the consensus of both parties in the US.

Second, Vietnam continues its policy of valuing relations with regional countries and major powers, a policy that is also consistent with the views of both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.

Third, these two figures are not "new faces" in relations with Vietnam. Mr. Trump has had a term as US President and visited Vietnam twice in 2017 and 2019 with good impressions of the S-shaped country.

Meanwhile, in 2021, Ms. Harris became the highest-ranking US leader to visit Vietnam in her first year as US Vice President.

There are many grounds for optimism, but it is also necessary to note some differences in relations with Vietnam between the two candidates.

Ms. Harris, with her Democratic Party views and leftist leanings, will focus more on stories related to environmental standards, labor, democracy, human rights... And her approach to these issues will be in relation to strategic relations with the region and with Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump will certainly be concerned about economics and trade, including the objectively existing trade deficit between the two countries.

However, not only with Vietnam but also with the Indo-Pacific region, where there are US rivals such as Russia or China, allies such as Japan, India or Australia, and multilateral institutions here such as ASEAN, how will Mr. Trump behave?

I see that there are many issues that are arising. Although the Vietnam-US relationship has a basis to continue to promote because it is in line with the interests of both countries and in line with the US geostrategy in this region, Mr. Trump's tone, priorities and approach will be more pragmatic, while Ms. Harris will be more strategic.

Therefore, we must carefully assess the different capabilities and priorities of both candidates to prepare in advance. At the same time, we have experience in relations with the US under both Democratic and Republican administrations in different periods.

With overlapping bilateral interests and regional geostrategic interests, I firmly believe that we will continue to maintain the momentum of stable and positive development of Vietnam-US relations.

Thank you Ambassador!