India's inflation may be below 4%

India's consumer inflation likely eased in February as food prices cooled. Illustrative photo

India’s consumer inflation likely fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% in February for the first time in six months, helped by easing food prices, a Reuters poll showed, reinforcing expectations of an interest rate cut.

In recent months, as winter vegetable supplies are plentiful, food prices, which account for nearly half of the inflation basket, have decelerated significantly. This is a positive sign after last year’s supply disruptions, when erratic monsoons and intense heat caused food prices to skyrocket, with many items seeing double-digit increases.

A Reuters poll of 45 economists , conducted from March 4 to 10, forecast inflation falling to 3.98% in February, from 4.31% in January.

Forecasts for the data due on March 12 ranged from 3.40% to 4.65%, with nearly 70% of respondents expecting inflation to be at or below the RBI’s medium-term target. Only five predicted inflation to exceed January’s level.

With inflation within the RBI's target range of 2-6 percent, economists say the central bank could cut interest rates again in April to support slowing economic growth, after cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points in February.

Another Reuters poll showed this rate cut cycle will be short and not too deep.

However, the India Meteorological Department warned that summer and heatwaves could arrive early, raising concerns that inflation could rise again as winter food supplies dwindle.

“We expect vegetable prices to start rising again from March due to the impact of heat waves and weather disruptions on crops,” said Rahul Bajoria, India & ASEAN economist at Bank of America.

His team forecasts overall consumer inflation to hit 4.8% in the current financial year but ease to 4.1% in the next financial year, with risks balanced between lower commodity prices and a weaker rupee.

The forecast is in line with a Reuters poll last month, which forecast inflation at 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to edge up to 3.82% in February from 3.70% in January.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index is forecast to have risen to 2.36 percent in February, from 2.31 percent in January, according to a Reuters poll.