World and domestic coffee prices both adjusted down slightly when there was some new information about more positive supply and demand. On the London floor, the inverse price structure was maintained with a very high difference between the near-term months.

Sales pressure continues to increase sharply from Brazilian producers, as the new crop output is increasing. The robusta market also received a report on coffee export data for July from the General Department of Vietnam Customs. Accordingly, coffee exports this month reached 108,872 tons (about 1.814 million bags), down 7.60% compared to the same period last year, down only 3.43% compared to coffee exports in the first 7 months of the calendar year 2022, but 36.09% higher than the initial export estimate of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

This year’s harvest in Brazil is in its final stages. Brazilian farmers have now harvested 80% of the crop, with production forecast to increase 7.5% from the previous season to an estimated 54.74 million bags due to the high-yielding “biennial” cycle of arabica coffee. Meanwhile, a falling real has prompted Brazilian farmers to boost export sales.

Information from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), University of Sao Paulo, reports the first flowering of the 2024/2025 crop year on Robusta coffee trees in Espirito Santo state with positive prospects as long as the weather continues to be favorable, while the crop harvest is currently 95%.

Domestic coffee prices today, August 10, slightly decreased by 200 VND/kg in key purchasing localities. (Source: Kitco)

At the end of the trading session on August 9, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery decreased by 9 USD, trading at 2,679 USD/ton. The price of November delivery decreased by 6 USD, trading at 2,543 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to decrease slightly, with the September 2023 delivery term down 0.6 cents, trading at 160.75 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery term down 0.65 cents, trading at 160.20 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Coffee prices on both exchanges have been falling continuously in recent times. The July report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that world coffee prices have fallen to their lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to the progress of the new crop harvest in Brazil being faster than the same period last year.

Meanwhile, on the London floor, the price structure is inverted with the difference between the near-term months being very high. This pattern shows short-term supply concerns.

ICE-London inventories reported on August 9 fell another 20 tonnes to 50,170 tonnes, continuing to stand at the lowest level since 2016, extending a streak of declines that began in late May without any additions. Arabica inventories on the ICE-New York exchange also fell to 527,492 bags and were at a record low.

Therefore, in the short term, there are still many factors supporting the upward price trend, including reports of reduced exports from major producing countries and forecasts that supplies will continue to be tight in the short term until Vietnam enters a new harvest at the end of this year's rainy season.