Before the COVID-19 pandemic, we (Brook Taylor from New Zealand and Sam Korsmoe from the United States) initiated a research project on Vietnam’s future. We have lived, worked, and studied Vietnam for a combined total of nearly 60 years. We have been part of Vietnam’s three-decade growth story and have seen indicators of a country’s development and prosperity gradually improve over the past 25 years. We wondered how this happened. More importantly, we wanted to know whether Vietnam’s growth model could continue for the next 25 years. Our fundamental question was: Is this just a burst of explosive growth that will eventually fizzle out, or will it lay the foundation for long-term, sustainable growth? Our efforts to answer the above questions have been rewarded with the publication of Vietnam - Asia's Rising Star (English edition by Silkworm Books) and Vietnam - Asia's Rising Star (Vietnamese edition by Quang Van and Hong Duc Publishing House).

We brought different experiences and strengths to the book. Brook is an entrepreneur, a member of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and CEO and Director of VinaCapital Fund Management Company. Sam, I am a writer, teacher and have been researching Vietnam since 1990. I wrote my master's thesis on Doi Moi and can speak Vietnamese. After many discussions, we decided to make a prediction (hypothesis) about the future of Vietnam. That is: Vietnam is the new economic dragon of Asia and will follow the development path of previous Asian economic dragons such as South Korea and Taiwan (China). There are two questions raised in this hypothesis. The first is the definition of what an economic dragon is. What is it and what conditions does a country need to be considered a "dragon"? We identified six criteria and tested each criterion in the case of Vietnam. These criteria include: (1) Data - socio-economic indicators have grown continuously for at least 10 consecutive years; (2) Exports - there is growth in the value chain of goods produced for export; (3) Industrialization - there are policies and infrastructure that serve as a foundation for the industrialization process; (4) Expertise - the education and skills of key personnel in the economy and government are increasingly improved; (5) Markets - Made-In-Vietnam products have access to many markets around the world; and (6) Leadership - there is a leadership system that is mainly based on competence. The second question is whether Vietnam in the 2020s and 2030s can successfully repeat the growth model of South Korea and Taiwan (China) in the 1980s and 1990s? In the space of 50 years (1950 to 2000), South Korea and Taiwan (China) developed from post-war, colonial, and poverty-stricken economies into high-income countries and territories. The fundamental question we asked was whether Vietnam could do the same. To test this part of the hypothesis, we used several research methods, including six case studies and eight economic drivers. We chose the hypothetical method for this project for a couple of reasons. First, we are not journalists, economists, historians, or affiliated with any government or organization. Second, we are not Vietnamese, so we wanted to have the most objective and scientific research method possible. We never thought we could truly understand the Vietnamese experience as they perceive it. Third, the hypothesis-based approach is scientific, with only one task: to test the hypothesis and report the results. There is no room for personal views or whitewashing of the core elements. We have invested a lot of time in researching the so-called “Middle-Income Trap”, a real “trap” that many countries cannot “escape” to become high-income countries. Of course, our most important question is whether Vietnam can escape this trap. In this book, we will provide detailed answers to the above questions. First, we argue that Vietnam will be the next economic dragon of Asia, because the country satisfies the criteria we have set. Second, we argue that Vietnam is very likely to replicate the growth model of Korea and Taiwan (China). This is thanks to the economic drivers that have supported Vietnam’s development over the past 25 years. We also examine the economic drivers that helped South Korea and Taiwan (China) succeed at different stages of their economic development. Six of these drivers can also be applied to Vietnam, meaning that Vietnam has a total of 14 distinct economic drivers that help its economy grow. This is why we argue that Vietnam has the potential to escape the Middle Income Trap and become a high-income country by 2040 or 2045. What can go wrong? Yes, it can. Nothing is certain. We have devoted an entire chapter to this question (Chapter 11 - Risks Ahead). There are still many issues that remain, such as the wealth gap, corruption, state capacity, the reversal of free trade, the environment, cultural change, and geopolitical risks. Any of these could become major obstacles to development. After investing more than three years in research, we are often asked what our most surprising discovery was. There are three points that stand out: First , culture plays a very important role in economic development. We researched whether Vietnam is a Northeast Asian or Southeast Asian country. Geographically, Vietnam is clearly in Southeast Asia, but we discovered that the country has similar cultural characteristics to Northeast Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, etc.). This includes the influence of Confucianism, the spirit of hard work, adherence to social discipline, and an educational model that requires an excellent academic effort. In addition, Vietnam has a dominant national language and a relatively favorable population structure for development. Second , the role of women in Vietnam, especially in the economy, is much more important than in most other countries. There are very few cultural and social barriers for Vietnamese women to take on leadership and business roles. As a result, the proportion of female workers in the workforce in Vietnam is much higher than in other countries in the Asia region and the world. Third , research on the Middle Income Trap shows the complexity and difficulty that most countries face in "escaping" the trap and becoming high-income countries. This is a very difficult and rare thing. According to the World Bank, since 1960, only 24 countries and territories have escaped the Middle Income Trap. The Four Asian Economic Dragons (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and Japan make up one-fifth of this group. During the period from 2001 to 2023, Vietnam's economy grew by an average of 6.23% per year. In our projections for the future, we present three growth scenarios: a baseline (a flat rate of 6.23%), a conservative scenario (5.23%), and an optimistic scenario (7.23%). In all three cases, Vietnam would become a high-income country. We conclude with three recommendations for Vietnam in the 2020s and 2030s, based on what has helped the economies of South Korea and Taiwan (China): Think big - In the mid-1950s in Japan and the late 1970s in South Korea, a group of pioneers decided to host the Olympics. For Japan, it was just 10 years after World War II ended. For South Korea, it was still a developing country with limited resources and tensions on the Korean Peninsula. However, the pioneers in these two countries still proposed, presented to the International Olympic Committee and won the right to host the Olympics in 1964 (Japan) and 1988 (Korea). Why can't Vietnam do the same for a future Olympics? Great effort - Taiwan (China) is now one of the world's leading economies in science and technology, especially in the field of chips and semiconductors. That achievement did not come suddenly, but was a long and arduous journey with many correct macro policies. Taiwan's (China) most significant strength is not natural resources, but highly qualified human resources, including many talents returning from abroad to build the information technology industry. Dare to Do Big - Morris Chang, born in mainland China, came to Taiwan (China) in 1987 and founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), one of the most important companies in the world today. Taiwan (China) is also home to the world's tallest building, Taipei 101, from 2004 to 2010. Around the same time, a group of Korean engineers decided that their company, Samsung, could become the world's largest supplier of a new product called smartphones. And they succeeded. The path that Vietnam seems to be on has been traveled by a number of other economies. There are rich development models and case studies to learn from. Vietnam's most important asset is not just the 14 drivers we analyzed in the book, but the 100 million people who live and work in Vietnam. The question is how eager are they to replicate the success model of the Asian economic dragons.