In recent days, there have been times when the world gold price has decreased but the domestic gold price has still increased sharply, experts explain the above contradictory developments.

Far beyond world gold price

Specifically, on the morning of April 18, although the world gold price was in a slight downward trend, the domestic gold bar price increased sharply by about 2 million VND/tael and set a new peak of 120 million VND/tael, while the gold ring price was at 117 million VND/tael.

Domestic gold prices have been increasing continuously, pushing the gap with world prices to more than 14 million VND/tael.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets - analyzed that in addition to being affected by the world, the domestic gold market is also greatly affected by the imbalance of supply and demand. Many businesses currently do not have a source of SJC gold bars to meet demand, while gold rings - a popular product line with people - are also in a similar situation.

Mr. Hieu said that the scarcity of supply has created great pressure causing domestic gold prices to increase faster and stronger than international prices. The market currently lacks effective regulatory measures to ensure stable supply in the short term.

“ In the past, the supply of SJC gold bars was mainly due to the State Bank selling to stabilize prices, which was only a temporary solution. Meanwhile, due to the increasing price of gold, people did not sell, so the supply became more scarce. Therefore, the management agency needs to allow businesses to import gold and switch to the role of manager and supervisor ,” Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu suggested.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, a financial expert at Nguyen Trai University, also emphasized that the State Bank's monopoly on gold bar imports is causing the market to lack competition, creating a large gap between domestic and world gold prices.

According to Mr. Huy, the supply of SJC gold is scarce, while the demand for buying is increasing rapidly. The sharp increase in the difference between domestic and international gold prices reflects a clear imbalance between supply and demand. The “FOMO” (fear of missing out) mentality has caused many people to rush to buy gold during the period of strong price increases, unintentionally adding fuel to the price increase wave.

Expert Tran Duy Phuong stated: The psychology of rushing to buy gold is also the reason why gold prices are difficult to stop increasing, even though the world may decrease. During the days when gold prices broke the peak, people still flocked to buy gold. The demand was so high that many stores "ran out of gold", some places had to make customers wait 10 days before returning the gold.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, said that the sharp increase in the price of SJC gold bars was mainly due to the high price of gold rings and the scarce supply of gold bars, forcing businesses to adjust their purchasing prices to attract customers.

" Many small businesses said they have run out of gold rings to sell, or are only selling in limited quantities. Meanwhile, those who sold when domestic prices had not increased in time now have no more goods to sell. Supply is exhausted while demand remains high, causing prices to rise sharply, " Mr. Huan analyzed.

Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice President of the Vietnam Gold Business Association, also commented that the domestic gold market is increasing too quickly compared to the world, which creates risks for buyers.

" Gold trading units do not have a supply source, so the price increases rapidly. In case the selling force of gold in the market increases and demand decreases, it means the price of gold will decrease sharply. This has happened in the past ," Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh warned.

Buyers at risk

Giving advice to investors in the face of the continuous increase in gold prices, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu warned that people should not rush to buy gold when the market is "hot", because this will easily push prices up further. In addition, buying gold in the context of high prices like now will have many potential risks.

“ No asset increases forever without adjustment. Investors need to stay calm and cautious, avoid rushing into the gold market based on emotions and following the crowd. Instead, they should diversify their investment portfolio, focusing on areas that bring long-term and sustainable value. Because investing in gold at the peak has the risk of big losses in case the market reverses, ” said Mr. Hieu.

Similarly, Mr. Huy also advised: “ The gold market never goes in a straight line. Prices can increase sharply in the short term but can also easily adjust when the following factors occur: Market sentiment changes, regulatory policies intervene to stabilize prices, and profit-taking pressure increases from international financial institutions. Therefore, people need to stay calm, closely observe market developments and not follow the crowd mentality .”

Expert Tran Duy Phuong also emphasized that people rushing to buy gold to store when prices are at record highs will easily get stuck in a financial loop, leading to very high risks. “ People should not buy because of the crowd mentality, buy to "surf" because the gold price is having many unpredictable fluctuations. If there is a need to buy, you can wait for the time when the price adjusts down, ” Mr. Phuong advised.