The Philippines is Vietnam's largest rice consumer market.

According to the report sent by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Ministry of Finance for the meeting of the Steering Committee on price management in the first quarter of 2025, the volume and value of rice exports in 2024 will reach 9 million tons and 5.67 billion USD, an increase of 11.1% in volume and 21.2% in value compared to 2023. The average export price of rice in 2024 will reach 627 USD/ton, an increase of 9.1% compared to 2023.

In 2025, the rice production area will be 7.0 million hectares, a decrease of 132 thousand hectares compared to 2024. Illustrative photo

In 2024, the Philippines will be Vietnam's largest rice consumer market with a market share of 46.1%. Indonesia and Malaysia will be the next two largest markets with market shares of 13.2% and 7.5%, respectively. Compared to 2023, the value of rice exports in 2024 to the Philippines will increase by 48.9%, to the Indonesia market by 16.6%, and to the Malaysia market by 2.1 times.

Among the 15 largest rice exporting markets, the export value of rice increased the most in the Malaysian market with an increase of 2.1 times; the market with the sharpest decrease in export value was China with a decrease of 8.4%.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that in 2024, the domestic rice market will be directly affected by the rice export situation. Prices of rice and non-rice tend to increase by about 1,000-2,000 VND/kg (normal rice in the North is about 17,000-20,000 VND/kg; in the South is about 12,500-13,500 VND/kg). Before, during and after Tet, rice prices fluctuate little.

The average export price of rice in 2024 is estimated at 626.5 USD/ton, up 9% compared to 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the price of 5% broken rice was high at the beginning of the year, increasing sharply due to high demand from import markets, averaging about 623 USD/ton; in the second quarter, the price peaked in April at about 642.7 USD/ton but decreased sharply in May and June, reaching an average of about 572 USD/ton; in the third quarter, the price recovered slightly due to increased demand in the middle of the year at about 605 USD/ton; in the fourth quarter, the average price was about 628 USD/ton, maintaining a stable high level and increasing positively compared to 2023.

Need to diversify export markets

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that in 2025, the rice production area will be 7.0 million hectares, a decrease of 132 thousand hectares compared to 2024; the expected yield will be 61.6 quintals/ha, an increase of 0.6 quintals/ha; The estimated output will be about 43.143 million tons, a decrease of about 357 thousand tons compared to 2024.

The balance of commercial rice for export in 2025 is as follows: Commercial rice export output is mainly concentrated in the provinces of the Mekong Delta; other regions mainly serve domestic consumption. Estimated production in 2025 in the Mekong Delta is 3.778 million hectares, with an average yield of 63.4 quintals/ha; estimated output is 23.965 million tons.

Of which, domestic consumption for the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City (the total estimated number of rice consumers from the Mekong Delta is 28 million people, including the population of the Mekong Delta of about 18 million people and Ho Chi Minh City of about 10 million people) and use as seeds, animal feed..., the total amount of rice consumed in the region is about 8.90 million tons.

Commercial rice for export is estimated at 15.085 million tons, equivalent to 7.54 million tons of commercial rice for export. Of which, the amount of commercial rice for export in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 4.50 million tons.

Specifically, January is about 450 thousand tons; February is about 570 thousand tons; March is about 1,130 thousand tons; April is about 1,000 thousand tons; May is about 850 thousand tons; June is about 500 thousand tons.

The amount of rice for export in the last 6 months of the year is estimated at 3.04 million tons. Specifically, about 550 thousand tons in July; about 900 thousand tons in August; about 900 thousand tons in September; about 300 thousand tons in October; about 250 thousand tons in November; about 140 thousand tons in December.

In 2025, when India has lifted the ban on rice exports, Indonesia - Vietnam's second largest rice export market - will be self-sufficient in food and only import a small amount of rice depending on supply, which will affect Vietnam's rice exports. Therefore, the Vietnamese rice industry needs to quickly calculate appropriate production and business plans from the beginning of 2025.

Regarding export markets, on the one hand, we still focus on exporting to key markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, etc. We need to proactively diversify markets and types of exported rice, not only focusing on Asian markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, China, etc., but also expanding exports to other potential markets such as Europe, the US, the Middle East, West Asia and Africa. Localities need to focus on producing high-quality, high-priced rice that is popular in the market, such as fragrant rice, specialty rice, etc.

In particular, focus on focusing resources on implementing the Project "Sustainable development of one million hectares of high-quality and low-emission rice cultivation associated with green growth in the Mekong Delta by 2030", to make Vietnam one of the pioneering countries in producing high-quality rice with emissions in line with world consumption trends, while creating greater added value for Vietnamese rice.