VNDirect predicts VN-Index could reach 1,900 points in the next 12 months

In its newly published strategic report, VNDirect Securities Company assessed that the strong growth in the past two months has caused the market valuation level to increase significantly compared to the beginning of the year. However, after the Q2/2025 business results announcement season with many positive colors, plus the short market correction at the end of July, the market's P/E returned to the attractive zone.

This valuation is still quite attractive at a discount of about 9.6% compared to the 10-year average. VNDirect expects the growth of profit after tax (EPS) of enterprises listed on HOSE to reach about 20-22% in 2025, corresponding to the forecast P/E of VN-Index in 2025 at about 13 times. The attractive valuation will help Vietnam continue to be a potential destination for investors.

In addition, the Vietnamese market recorded a return on equity of 13.6%, a figure that is superior to other markets in the region. According to VNDirect, the positive business results picture will be an important foundation to help the stock market maintain a stable upward trend in the medium and long term.

Regarding the stock market, the general market performance is positive as the VN-Index has quickly broken through to its historical peak. In addition, VNDirect also pointed out another positive point: the proportion of stocks with prices above the MA200 resistance level is above 66%, while the proportion of stocks surpassing the MA50 resistance level has reached 83% at times and is currently at around 77%. With a high proportion of stocks surpassing important medium- and long-term resistance levels, it can be seen that the market momentum is moving in a positive direction.

Although the spread is positive, VNDirect still warns investors to pay attention to increasing short-term risks. Since 2021, every time the proportion of stocks surpassing MA50 reaches over 80%, the VN-Index has had a correction or differentiation period afterwards. With factors such as a positive Q2/2025 business results season and market valuations returning to attractive levels, VNDirect expects that if there is a correction, the level will be relatively mild before the market returns to the next uptrend.

For the longer term, specifically in the next 9-12 months, VNDirect maintains an optimistic view, with the base scenario that VN-Index could reach the 1,850-1,900 point range. Key drivers include the possibility of market upgrade, the prospect of the Fed easing monetary policy and solid corporate earnings growth, thereby creating a foundation for improving valuations and strengthening investor confidence.

Regarding the market upgrade story, VNDirect forecasts that FTSE will officially upgrade the Vietnamese market to a secondary emerging market, and expects that the remaining MSCI upgrade criteria will be met in 2026 and the Vietnamese market will be officially upgraded to an emerging market by MSCI in the June 2027 review.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/vndirect-du-bao-vn-index-co-the-len-1-900-diem-trong-12-thang-toi-415946.html